Is Serbia between a Russian rock & an EU
hard place?
The EU
& US see Russia’s involvement in the Balkans as encroaching & are
visibly threatened by it. It is evident
that countries in the Balkans are coming under an intense spotlight for their
relations with Russia. Angela Merkel,
recently stated in a discussion after a speech that: "And that doesn't just apply to Ukraine. It applies to Moldova, it
applies to Georgia. If the situation continues ... we'd have to ask about
Serbia, we'd have to ask about the western Balkan countries."
Historically,
Serbia has had strong links with Russia, although this decreased a lot in the
last decade. However, in the last year, President Nikolić
has forged further ties with Russia, including on military cooperation
& humanitarian assistance. Serbian leaders are walking on a tightrope
between the US, EU & Russia political spheres.
In October,
President Putin was guest of honor at a Serbian military parade, to commemorate
the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Belgrade from Nazism by the Red Army.
At the same time, Putin was also awarded
the highest honor in Serbia. This certainly did not go unnoticed by the US
administration or its ambassador, Michael Kirby, who voiced his reservation: “It
is not yet confirmed that Putin will come, but if he does – why is he coming?”
To add more
fuel on the EU/US ‘fear’ fire, 200 Russian & Serbian Special Forces troops recently
carried out their first ever joint antiterrorist military exercise called “Srem
2014” in Serbia. The US State Dept.
noted this event, by stating that "This is no time for ‘business as usual’
with Russia." It nevertheless stirred controversy as Russia was seen to
showing it military might in an EU candidate country. The reality is that it can be considered as
just more bluster since Serbia is a neutral country that has an interest in
both ‘camps’. The Serbian army also
participates in NATO exercises, such as Rapid Trident 2013 in Ukraine, but of
course that doesn’t generate a fuss from the US.
"What Jupiter is allowed, the Ox is
not,"
Berlin was concerned
over a jointly run Russian disaster control center established in the southern Serbian
city of Niš, as it could become a spy center.
Of course, no such EU concern was ever expressed over the establishment
of Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo. So what is Berlin anxious about? It was over the signing
of a Cooperation Memorandum, dealing with a rapid and efficient response in
emergencies. Nevertheless, it involved cooperation with the Russian government
& caused a flap in Berlin.
The media
circus has been tackling the subject of the Balkans & Serbia lately. Take
for instance the tone of this title of this article: “The Western Balkans Are
Becoming Russia’s New Playground”. This
echoes to a certain extent the policy line set by Berlin & Washington and
probably serves a gentle reminder that only the EU & US are permitted under
their own rules to interfere in the business of other countries.
While the
EU & Germany in particular are still dangling the EU membership carrot in
front of Serbia, the Serbian leadership is treading water on this issue, as
Serbia is not likely to have opened any new accession chapters in 2014. Michael Roth from the German Foreign Ministry
stated, "We have to continually make it clear to the Balkan states that
accession to the EU is in their interests," It probably doesn’t look particularly
appealing at the moment, given the huge economic crisis experienced in Greece,
Spain, Italy & Portugal.
The EU has
applied pressure on Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia, with the EU
Commissioner Johannes Hahn, telling that “Serbia should progressively align its
foreign policy positions to EU ones”. He later added "It is very important
and we expect of Belgrade to meet its commitment". This was in response to
Nikolić: “Serbia is not an EU member and it can be independent in pursuing its
foreign policy; but EU membership would have implied a commitment to pursue a
common foreign policy." Serbia has
so far refused to do so, citing its neutrality.
Hardly surprising considering Serbia is experiencing a well needed minor
agricultural economic boost from Russia, partly as a result of the sanctions. Serbian
agricultural products to Russia have been increased by 60 percent in the last
six months. Perversely, Washington is seen
to push this line as well, odd, given that the US is not part of the EU system,
but can still dictate EU policy.
A potential
boost in Serbian agricultural exports to Russia can be seen a potential silver lining
in a dark cloud. Back in May, the
Western Balkans experienced devastating floods that ravaged agriculture, devastated
infrastructure, mining & energy industry & exports. Official figures
for the damage in Serbia alone stand at 1.55 billion euros (1.98 billion
dollars). The events initiated a large international aid campaign, with
numerous countries and organizations donating humanitarian and monetary support
for the affected areas. Russian specialists from the Niš disaster center were
heavily involved in the relief support and Russia was the first to airlift
rescue equipment & supplies into Serbia. The EU relief effort lagged considerably
behind that of Russia’s contribution. In fact, the initial reaction of the EU
was from the EU Foreign Policy chief Catherine Ashton, who sent her condolences. If this lack of help by the EU was noticed by
Serbian citizens, no doubt it was equally felt by Serbian politicians too.
Much fuss
has been made in the EU press circle & in Berlin over a number of ‘petty’
issues, to stress the threat of Putin’s Russia in Serbia. One example is Russian Railways who are
working on 350km length of Serbian rail tracks. Another futile example is the
fact that the multinational Lukoil company owns a large share in a Serbian
service-station chain. Of course, Gazprom holds majority ownership of Serbia’s
natural gas provider. Yet no mention is
made to the huge difference between EU direct investments in Serbia over a 7
year period, with 9.2 billion euros, compared to Russian investment of just
€2.5 billion. Even more pointless concerns are expressed at the fact that there
a lot of Russians that invest in Montenegro & own properties in
Bulgaria.
Turning to
another bone of contention between Serbia, the EU & US is the Gazprom
backed South Stream gas pipeline project.
Slavenko Terzic, the Serbian ambassador to Russia stated that "The
South Stream project was granted a status of national importance in
Serbia," adding "We hope work on the project will begin as quickly as
possible." Of course, the whole
project is entirely dependent on the EU’s green light for it. As it stands, the EU has stalled any work
& Russia has just halted it. Maybe Russia once more has partly saved Serbia’s
political day by pulling the plug on the South Stream project.
Last word
Serbia's
foreign minister, Ivica Dačić, said:
"What
is Serbia supposed to do? To say that, because we want to join the EU, sorry
Russia, we're not friends with you anymore? Where's our national interest in
that?"
Notes
In the recent
UN Asssembly on the only other,
(Russia being the other), European country to have voted yes was Serbia.
Russian
Cuts to Gas Supply Worry Serbia: Amid reports that Russia was reducing gas supplies.
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/us-does-not-pressure-serbia-to-introduce-sanctions-to-moscow
IMF
approves 1-bn-euro stand-by loan for #Serbia http://f24.my/1AnI6uU Not approved by IMF Executive board +
includes Austerity measures
"Although
it is our understanding that this Russian-Serbian joint military drill had been
planned for some time, we regret that Serbia decided to proceed. In light of
Russia's actions in Ukraine and its disregard of international law and norms,
this is no time for 'business as usual' with Russia, State Department
Spokeswoman Jen Psaki
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire