Blogpost: Syria Refugees blame game

Drip, drip, drip, the heavy rain outside my window seems to be never-ending.  So is the news coming in from the Syrian border with Turkey. Take for example this latest batch:

• 35,000 #Syrian refugees arrived at southern #Turkish border in last 48 hours, more to come http://xhne.ws/OH9ug
  • Photos from BBC website show thousands of refugees from Aleppo gather at the Turkey border http://bbc.in/1SPCG3O
 • EU says Turkey must keep border open to Syrian refugees http://dailym.ai/1QjuOCX
 • Governor of Turkey's Kilis province: "our doors are not closed but at the moment there is no need to take in Syrians along border" from Sky News.

Yet at the same time, the Turkish forces are still carrying deadly heavy-handed ‘policing’ operations against the Kurds in places such as Diyarbakir & Cizre . It would be unwise to allow loads of refugees into areas that are conflict zones themselves. What is happening to the people displaced by the intense fighting in the Kurdish areas of Turkey? The likes of the BBC or Sky News are being really cagey about it all and will not venture into this news ‘territory’, maybe because it is not part of the usual Western MSM narrative to point out inconsistencies in ‘allied’ countries, especially Turkey as a NATO member. “Don’t dig up the dirt on friends.”

The West’s MSM is ratcheting up the “Assad must go”, “pity the poor rebels” and “Russia is bad because it supports the Assad regime” statements. This has been visibly noticeable before and during the Geneva talks on Syria. The accusations haven’t stopped and have morphed into a strange blend along the lines of “Russia is seriously bad, it is causing a refugee crisis and it is responsible for the Syrian conflict.” Blatantly ignoring the fact that the refugee crisis started in 2011.

The US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar & others such as the UK & France have helpfully fanned the flames of a brutal conflict since 2011, initially as part of the “Arab Spring” programme, aiding and abetting the destabilization of Syria & consequently provoking a huge refugee crisis. http://journal-neo.org/2016/02/06/syria-natos-last-desperate-options-in-lost-proxy-war/ This was long before any Russian combat aircraft landed at Hmeymim . There were even calls for Syrians to leave and go to Turkey to justify foreign intervention. Take the example of a "rebel" Sheikh Al-Arour ordering Syrians to leave back in 2011. https://twitter.com/theLemniscat/status/696318849902313472 All of this is a huge inconvenience for the MSM, who seem to be more than OK that Al Qaeda in Syria is simply a group of ‘moderate rebels’ to them. Al Nusra & other ‘rebels’ follow a rigid Sharia-based Islamist agenda, but again that doesn’t bother the MSM, being loyal slaves to their political masters. 9-11 in the US is lost to them.  More so, how times have changed since 2011 & horribly so.

The tune created by the US, the Gulf countries & Turkey hasn’t changed one iota over these last years, it is spelt out as” regime change” in Damascus. Nothing else matters but to unseat Assad, unhinge Iran & now upset Russia, hence the continued logistical & military support to proxy jihadi rabble armies to wage a viscous conflict with Syrian government troops & their allies.

Despair on Syria's border: Assad's regime gains ground, hope for peace talks fades https://t.co/oKeDDrNTu8 pic.twitter.com/IKfwMrWGtz

— CNN (@CNN) February 8, 2016

The Aleppo region was hailed as one of the birthplace of the “Syrian revolution” and at the moment the ‘rebels’ are losing people & ground, thus provoking a series of remarkable bellicose statements by the US, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain & the UAE.  Recently, the US secretary of State, John Kerry asked that the bombing of Aleppo be lifted & in the process managed to send out a rather confusing message on the UN resolution related to IS & Al Qaeda. The latest talks at Geneva were practically stillborn, since the Kurds weren't invited and the Islamists not wanted at all at the table.  Then we get this, the message of doom & horror because the Russians are attacking the 'rebels' is reverberating around, and now waiting to see who picks it up and repeat the information like a parrot to the masses of the clueless West:

From a warm hotel in Turkey,the @SyrianCoalition hold world responsible (subtext: for the imminent fall of #Aleppo) pic.twitter.com/7YHI10Rckv

— Syricide (@Syricide) February 7, 2016

It is getting painful for these countries to see the ‘rebels’ losing so badly and as such Russia is getting singled out by political leaders and the media alike. In a recent stopover in Dakar, the president of Turkey, Erdogan stated that: “the bombings that the Russian lead in Syria have caused the death of 400,000 civilians” and then further added "400 000 civilians have been killed because of the bombing in Russia. Russia is an occupying force. It has an air and naval base in Syria. It does not have a common border with Syria. What is Russia doing in Syria? Turkey has a very long border with Syria. This is not the case for Russia". Moreover, he also said that "In Syria, terrorism is perpetuated by the regime and its supporters.” and "Bashar Al Assad is finished. His actions have made the terrorists divide up the Syrian territory. "

 http://www.lesoleil.sn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=47544:escale-du-president-erdogan-a-dakar--la-turquie-va-terminer-les-travaux-de-laibd&catid=78:a-la-une&Itemid=255

The 'rebels' in the Aleppo & Idlib region are allied with Al-Nusra (Al-Qaeda) & so under UN resolution 2249 can be attacked by the Russian & other air forces. Yet the West's keep talking about the 'rebels' without making that essential connection.   It is therefore not really surprising that all of the sudden, several thousands refugees turn up at the Turkish border.  How does the gullible & pathetic BBC know that these are all refugees and  not 'rebels' fleeing with their family PR stunt.  There are literally thousands of foreign fighters in the pay of 'rebel' forces, some with their families, having previously displaced the original inhabitants. No one is really asking the relevant questions.

The 'rebels' are losing ground and fighters, so it is also logical that they are either pressing for more media attention and thus political leverage by pushing out 'people', who are them labelled as 'refugees' to the border region to be filmed & photographed, similarly to how the KLA operated in Kosovo in 1999. On a side note, add in the fact that it isn’t just the Russian bombing Syria these days, since there is also a whole coalition led by the US, purportedly bombing IS positions. So how can the Western press be so sure of themselves and solely blame just the Russian air raids? On whose say so? It just so happens to be 'Russia' so the US & EU media has simply fallen lock-step by branding Russia as bad.

At the Dakar press conference, Erdogan spoke about a forthcoming summit of the Organization of Islamic cooperation (Oic), being held in Istanbul. He said that he was "confident that the summit will make the necessary decisions in the fight against Daesh, the PKK, and Boko Haram ". Erdogan is more than irked at the Kurds, since they are effective anti- ISIS fighters and through military action have threatened to cut off IS from the Turkish border. He doesn’t flinch away from putting the PKK after Boko Haram but before IS. A bit like Obama’s ranking of threats back in 2014 mentioning Ebola Russia & IS in the same speech. It shows the muddled Washington & Ankara mindsets at work here. Yet the PKK has steadfastdly fought against IS over the border in both Syria & Iraq. 

As I write this the MSM are trying to garner public support for the refugees on the Turkish border, even the EU elite is asking Turkey to let them in, while barriers are being built to stop migrants in Europe. But as it stands, the 'refugees' are trapped, where their plight might be an excuse for Turkey to step in and intervene militarily by establishing a buffer zone. Even the German foreign minister Steinmeier spoke about the need for humanitarian corridors again. This has been already attempted back in 2014, with safe zones & no-fly zones being yet again mooted.  The UN-declared safe zones in Bosnia-Herzegovina turned into areas where fighters rested & operated out with impunity.

This time, there is the addition of refugees as useful pawns to provide the necessary justification for a military ground force incursion  Here is a map as outlined in the Italian newspaper, 'La Repubblica':

https://twitter.com/MoonofA/status/696286696208527360 

Is it really part of the propaganda campaign, in readiness for the preparation for Turkish or  US-lead ground incursion into Syria? We'll find out soon, no doubt, given the rapid advances being made by Damascus & Moscow forces. A dangerous geopolitical "Call my bluff " is taking place with a possible military trip wire being put into place by a panicky US & agitated Turkey & Saudi Arabia, done under the guise of 'humanitarian help' to 'refugees'.  So far, Turkey has set up 8 refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border, and is giving tents, food and other supplies to the refugee camps.

NB: According to a NATO spokesperson, the NATO SG Jens Stoltenberg said that  'Increased Russian air activity in Syria is leading to unacceptable violations of NATO airspace'. Neither NATO or Turkey have given any concrete evidence to the Russian government on the alleged incident where Turkey claimed that  a Su-34 fighter jet violated its air space. https://twitter.com/NATODepSpox/status/697022801132331008

As if it wasn't fraught enough, geopolitically with the shooting down of a Russian military jet, NATO now whines about from time to time.

The EU, migrants & Visegrad 4

Hungry, Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia are collectively known as the Visegrad 4 or V4, which will celebrate its 25th anniversary next year.  PM Orbán congratulated the new Polish PM, and urged "the necessity of more intensive coordination between Visegrad nations."

Back in August, the V4 countries caused a stir in the EU by throwing a spanner in the EU works by refusing to accept an EU wide quota on migrants.   The French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius responded by saying that this was "scandalous” and also said that the border barrier being built by Hungary at that time "did not respect Europe's common values".

[Ed-  I’m wondering what he has to say now that Slovenia’s is putting up its own border barrier, (sorry “temporary technical hurdles” in form of razor wired fences).   Or the fact that of Austria has constructed  its own fence on the border with Slovenia.]

Interestingly, the V4 countries did manage to shift Brussel’s position on quotas, as can been seen in their communique in September.
http://www.visegradgroup.eu/calendar/2015/joint-communique-of-the-150911  

On the ground, the Visegrad 4 countries are providing border patrols along the Hungarian border with Serbia.   This ties in with what Vitkor Orban stated recently that the EU must first establish its own lines of defence.

https://twitter.com/Kittensinurface/status/663438174618787840

http://www.defence24.com/271521,polish-border-patrol-units-in-hungary

There is still a deepening unease within the Visegrad 4 countries on the handling of the huge influx of migrants since late summer.  Hungary is acting in accordance with the Schengen Agreement that obliges countries with external Schengen borders to protect it from illegal crossings.  Yet the EU Commission countered a few times this by stating that Hungary was going against EU values!

"The commission does not promote the use of fences and encourages member states to use alternative measures," Natasha Bertaud, the European Commission's spokeswoman for justice and home affairs, in July.

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/european-commission-hungary-serbia-wall-fence-illegal-migrants/27079829.html

Recently they have deployed around 300 police officers to patrol the Greek – Turkish borders.

http://hungarytoday.hu/news/visegrad-countries-deploy-300-strong-joint-police-force-patrol-greeces-boder-turkey-21447 

The Hungarian president, Viktor Orban, is quite scathing about the EU leadership, especially in relation with Turkey.  Last week, in Malta, he said “We do not want the EU to sit down to negotiate with Turkey, while giving the impression that it is Turkey which will save the EU. One cannot negotiate if the other party thinks that they are their negotiating partner’s last hope”.

On one hand, the ‘rebellion’ by the Visegrad 4 seems to be a clear cut example of disunity within EU ranks.  On the other hand, it also seems that they are acting as a kind of lifebuoy for the whole EU by taking the initiative & micromanaging a response themselves. This potentially might backfire on them, if Brussels does in the long run doesn't take into consideration the V4 countries’ political agenda concerning the ‘migrant’ flow into the EU. The signals from Brussels are still erratic to say the least, with Berlin still taking the limelight but at the same time staying quite inflexible.

According to a German newspaper Politico, Merkel said  “Those who can consider themselves lucky that they have lived to see the end of the Cold War now think that one can completely stay out of certain developments of globalisation. It just strikes me as somehow very weird,” Merkel then said "“When someone says ‘This is not my Europe, I won't accept Muslims,' I have to say, this is not negotiable".  Merkel’s message from Germany didn't always reach a sympathetic audience. A Czech Republic newspaper, Mladá fronta Dnes, stated that it wanted Merkel to be replaced by someone “with a sense of reality” & then said that “We must quickly forget how Germany tried to force us and the other Visegrád states into obedience, how it threatened and insulted us.”

It is quite revealing how the V4 are effectively responding in their own way to the sudden influx of migrants, and did so quickly, albeit in small measured steps. While Berlin generates more hot air & seen to be doing practically nothing at all to stem the migrant flow, it seems that the V4 are putting talk, aka “jaw jaw” into real concrete measures by micromanaging a partial unified response to the ongoing challenges, yet still remaining within the EU framework.

Lately, a number of high level V4 politicians seem to be pulling away from Brussel’s position on several issues.  First we had Viktor Orban firmly nailing his political colours to the mast in a number of speeches, now we have Miloš Zeman, the president of the Czech Republic, with his latest defiant speech regarding dissent views, migrants and Islam.   Then of course, a political swing towards the right in Poland recently took place along with a change in policy direction.  So that leaves Slovakia.  Well, the Slovak President doesn’t seem to share the same memo as his other V4 politicians.   AndrejKiska said that the Visegrad 4 cannot become a "troublemaking bloc... with a 'blame it on Brussels' attitude".  Yet, Robert Fico, the prime minister took different line back in August:

"We strongly reject any quotas ... If a mechanism for automatic redistribution of migrants is adopted, then we will wake up one day and have 100,000 people from the Arab world and that is a problem I would not like Slovakia to have." And Fico also send that “"As long as I am prime minister, mandatory quotas will not be implemented on Slovak territory."

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/justice-home-affairs/slovakia-calls-visegrad-summit-oppose-migrant-quotas-317199

Looking at the wider context: George Soros, of Hungarian descent, apparently outlined a 6 point plan in which the following is stated:

“First, the EU has to accept at least a million asylum-seekers annually for the foreseeable future. And, to do that, it must share the burden fairly – a principle that a qualified majority finally established at last Wednesday’s summit.”

http://www.georgesoros.com/essays/rebuilding-the-asylum-system/

As if reading the Soros script, Brussels & Berlin did made calls to share the load out to all members of EU, through a quota system.  Notably the Visegrad 4 have officially stated that they are very unhappy at the 'political correctness' behind what they perceived as being 'failed' EU migrant quotas being imposed upon them.  The Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó, said “Efforts at political correctness, as well as hypocrisy, prevent some from admitting that this is not a migrant crisis, but mass migration”. Moreover he too alluded to Berlin’s initial handling of the migrant influx, when he said that it is unacceptable to make political statements which that can be interpreted as “invitations”.

The mandatory imposition of an EU –wide quota has now been openly challenged by all of the V4 countries, with Poland being the latest member to do so. The Polish foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, has recently expressed his concerns over the whole migrant EU quota issue, after the terror attacks in Paris.

Soros’s article specifically mentions Viktor Orban’s own 6 point plan, where he criticizes it since in his opinion it “subordinates the human rights of asylum-seekers and migrants to the security of borders, threatens to divide and destroy the EU by renouncing the values on which it was built…”    The sparring match between Soros & Orban is quite evident.  Orban is not apparently approved of by the EU elites for a while now.  The MSM, right from the very beginning of the migrant ‘crisis, has been highly critical of the Hungarian government’s move in trying to the situation.  Now we can see that the V4 countries are lending a hand to Hungary.   Will this on-going political saber-rattling have wider repercussions on the V4 countries as a whole? Will Brussels be rattled by Orban and also V4’s general political direction?

The reality is that the V4 countries are not only deepening their cooperation between themselves but also wider across with Balkan countries. The Visegrad countries are currently holding a meeting in Prague along with Western Balkans states.  It is interesting to note that Slovenia is increasingly participating in the V4 group, but it is not as a member though. Also noteworthy was a trilateral meeting between Greece, Bulgaria & Hungary at the beginning of November.

While Brussels & Berlin appear to be totally frozen like a rabbit in the lights of a car, the V4 countries are continuing to establish & consolidate their political agendas and measures.

Some perspectives [eng]

In the wake Friday 13th Paris attacks

The US administration has been increasingly bellicose about Assad lately.  The US secretary for Defence Ashton Carter talked about more ground troops needed in Syria.   It seems that the US war-mongering plate isn’t quite full, what with the existing hundreds of US bases across the world & the ongoing “war on terror” in places such as Iraq, Nigeria or Afghanistan.

It could be said that the US war hawks’ manna from heaven materialized on late Friday evening in Paris.  What remains to be seen is the final outcome of the G20 summit in Turkey where in haste President Hollande has sent his foreign minister, Laurent Fabius in his place. On a side note, just today, Hollande had an hour long talk with Sarkozy, one of the instigators of the NATO campaign against Libya.  Alternatively, will Turkey’s Erdogan be given free rein to openly intervene in Syria?

Could this be part of a plan to either invoke Article 5 of NATO or creation of NATO "no fly zones"? Is this is the West’s pretext or sorry excuse to attack Syria, since the political & media elites established narrative is stubbornly centred on blaming Assad for all the terrorism in Syria? How many times have we heard Establishment commentators say or write that Assad supports IS or that Russia is apparently the airforce for ISIS? The buzz continues to make its rounds.


This is does not bode well for Syria or Russia, with a hint of possibility of French troops being sent to Syria, as part of the US created “global coalition”. Just a little reminder that the French aircraft carrier has been re-deployed back to the Persian Gulf, ostensibly to fight IS.  Odd, given that it was in the Persian Gulf to assist in combating IS in the first place. But 16/11/15 Hollande has stated that the aircraft carrier will go to the eastern Med instead.

Assad repeatedly warned us in the West, even back in 2012 but the EU political elites simply dismissed it out of hand:

 "What France suffered from savage terror is what the Syrian people have been enduring for over five years. And it is not possible to dissociate what happened yesterday in France with what happened in Beirut two days ago, because terrorism remains terrorism. It is not necessary to consider it as a strike in a different place, Syrian land, Yemeni land, Libyan, or  French ground : in reality, it is one and the same global field."

" Unfortunately, European leaders did not give importance to our statements, but they thought that we were threatening them,  they have not even learnt the lessons from the Charlie Hebdo events in January. Their statements that they are against terrorism have no value."

The Paris attacks showed another level of sophistication not previously seen before, which has taken some security experts by surprise.  Compared to the Charlie Hebdo Paris attacks in January, the latest attacks had a well-organized command & control that facilitated these terror attacks, with links with Belgium & possibly back to IS controlled territories in the Middle-East. The boomerang effect is here to stay indefinitely largely due to the West warped understanding of upholding democratic values.

Many people will plead either ignorance or complete stupidity about the level of Islamic terror attacks.  So let’s take a trip down memory lane, courtesy of Der Speigel. Back then in 2005, it was about al-Qaida, the scary bogeyman of the West, now transformed into the more brutal IS.  The article outlines its strategy, step by step and describes “a lunatic plan conceived by fanatics who live in their own world, but who continually manage to break into the real world with their brutal acts of violence.”  Notice how the Third step from 2007 to 2010 is focused on Syria.  “The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared.” Dose of deja-vu anyone?

Notwithstanding the deliberate Western media & political obscuring of the origins & tangled web of connections between the terror groups, most of the West’s intelligence services clearly know about the origins of IS, as succinctly put by a French general to the French Senate in 2014:

“Who is the doctor that created this Frankenstein? Let’s clearly state it since it has consequences, it is the US. [But also] Other players out of short-term political policies; who appear to the West’s friends. Other players, through complacency or with deliberate intent, have contributed to this construction and to its strengthening. But the first culprits are the United States.” 
Général Vincent Desportes, 17th December 2014

Quelle surprise – pas! One of the reported attackers was apparently known since 2010 to the French security services, under the famous and notorious “Fiche S”, ("sûreté d'Etat"), system, used for known radicalized individuals.  Seriously what are these people doing loose in France, if they don’t like the French lifestyle & values?  It doesn't bear thinking that some even had access to airside parts of Roissy-Charles-de-Gaulle airport.

It seems that some of  those not only had been given a free pass by the authorities, including not going to prison  but actually went as far as going to Syria to fight over there. The problem is when the chickens come home to roost.

Marc Trévidic,a French anti-terrorist judge, mentioned in September 2015 that "The real war that the IS intends to carry out on our soil has not yet begun." He added that " the men of Daech have the means, the money and the ability to easily acquire as many guns as they want and organize mass attacks." 

ISIS is both supported behind the scenes by Turkey, a NATO member state.  NATO has either turned a blind eye or given the ok to the Salafi/Wahabi proxy army.   Equally disturbing is the fact that Western corporate media outlets have done doing their best to whitewash IS and cover up the EU, Qatari, Saudi, US & Turkey backing of these evil shits.

It was originally reported that 2 passports of the alleged attackers were Syrian & are that of recent ‘migrants’, into the EU. A Greek official commented that "“Either this person passed through Greece posing as a refugee, or along the way he bought or stole the passport. At this stage either scenario is possible.”  It is possible that the names M. al Mahmod & Ahmad Almohammad are false.  Information on one of them was given a Serbian newspaper. [Update French police confirm that 2 passports are bogus & probably forged in Turkey].  2 of the Stade de France suicide bombers did arrive in Greece on the in October in a  boat group of 200. A week later, the French prime minister Valls said on France 2 TV station, "These individuals took advantage of the refugee crisis... of the chaos, perhaps, for some of them to slip in" to France".  
 
German authorities have reported that  1 in 3 of the wannabe European settlers have fake IDs, where " at some border crossings 90 percent claim to be from Syria." That must be not so heartening news for European law enforcement, the fact that fraudulent use of documents is OK & hence no need to tighten border controls.  Judging from videos showing the migrant flow into Europe & into the Schengen area, there are a lot out there that are pretending to be Syrian, even if they don’t speak Arabic!

Cynically speaking of course, let's take inspiration from Soros,to allow the EU elites to completely throw open the borders, & do away with Schengen.   That way, no one will know how many mischief makers, criminals & terrorists enter Europe. That fits in well with what is being stated in the MSM, "Yet, the possibility that one of the attackers came from Syria has already been seized upon as an opportunity to criticise and alter refugee policy not just in Europe, but across the world" France 24.  The bottom line is don't dare to criticise or alter the EU's 'virtuous' migration policy since it is deemed to be non-negotiable.

 Once more, very few searching questions are being asked about the widespread circulation of mostly fake Syrian passports, seemingly coming from Turkey! Despite this lax attitude on the part of the MSM, one enterprising Dutch journalist managed to obtain a forged Syrian passport  & ID card with a photo of the Dutch prime minister, all for 750€! Furthermore, 10,000 fake Syrian passports have been seized in Bulgaria alone, a drop in the ocean compared to the estimated 150,000 refugees who have recently entered the EU with false IDs. 1 or 2 of them  did take advantage of the chaotic influx into the EU and subsequently  turned up in Paris where they killed ordinary people out & about & enjoying their Friday evening.

Calls including by the French Greens, have been made not to stigmatize migrants in the wake of the attacks, but have ever so quiet on making suggestions as to how to deal security questions arising from the huge migrant flow. At the same time there is increasing evidence being provided by police on a potential terror networks stretching across Europe.  Certain mainstream media outlets feel greatly concerned about the political negative fall-out that the Paris attacks have had on the migrant flows into the Schengen area. In a nutshell, here is what the Guardian has to say: "Increasing fear of Muslims being associated with terror attacks; with potentially more hatred shown by far-right groups".  Apparently we need to be more concerned about so called far-right groups than actual indoctrinated murderers returning from the Syrian conflict, planning killing sprees in Europe and across the world.


Yet, 13% of Syrian refugees in Lebanese, Jordanian & Turkish refugee camps, viewed IS in a 'positive' or "positive to a certain extent". This is according to a 2014 report, the Arab Opinion Index Team -  Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, based in Doha, Qatar.  So a probably a fair sprinkling of IS sympathisers if not supporters in  are scattered to the four corners of the EU, largely thanks to Merkel & Erdogan's actions in the summer of 2015.  This does not help other Syrian refugees either, since a large proportion, 73% have a negative view of IS.  We have all found ourselves in uncharted waters, with various key state & regional players bit by bit revealing their geopolitical  true colours & long-term intentions, such as the US & Saudi Arabia.  Other key players simply have melted into the night, such the EU, due to a complete inability to take concrete measures.

"Europe has not yet become aware of its incompatibility with IS. But as long as it exists, Europe will not resume its former way of life. It is a truth that is not fun"

Alexey  Puchkov, Head of foreign affairs committee, Duma, Russia

Often cited by establishment media and intensely disliked by EU elites,Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, had previously warned about the unchecked "tidal wave" of migrants entering into Europe: 

“Everything which is now taking place before our eyes threatens to have explosive consequences for all of Europe… If Europe does not return to the path of common sense, it will find itself laid low in a battle for its fate.”

It is not as if we have not been warned about the outrageous behaviour of the US & NATO proxies.  At the end of September, Vladimir Putin clearly alluded to this absurd state of affairs in his speech to the UNGA:

“It is equally irresponsible to manipulate extremist groups and use them to achieve your political goals, hoping that later you’ll find a way to get rid of them or somehow eliminate them.

I’d like to tell those who engage in this: Gentlemen, the people you are dealing with are cruel but they are not dumb. They are as smart as you are. So, it’s a big question: who’s playing who here? The recent incident where the most “moderate” opposition group handed over their weapons to terrorists is a vivid example of that.

We consider that any attempts to flirt with terrorists, let alone arm them, are short-sighted and extremely dangerous. This may make the global terrorist threat much worse, spreading it to new regions around the globe, especially since there are fighters from many different countries, including European ones, gaining combat experience with Islamic State. Unfortunately, Russia is no exception.

Now that those thugs have tasted blood, we can’t allow them to return home and continue with their criminal activities. Nobody wants that, right?”

Unfortunately, ordinary people in Paris were on the receiving end of assault rifles & explosives and over 130+  of them lost their lives.





Links

Blaming Assad  http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34827047

Belgium:  http://fr.sputniknews.com/international/20151115/1019539071/bruxelles-arrestations-paris-attentats.html

Assad TV interview: http://www.medias-presse.info/bachar-al-assad-rappelle-a-la-france-quil-avait-prevenu-des-consequences-du-soutien-de-paris-aux-terroristes/43495

 Der Speigel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/the-future-of-terrorism-what-al-qaida-really-wants-a-369448.html

Général Vincent Desportes, 17th December 2014
http://www.senat.fr/compte-rendu-commissions/20141215/etr.html

 https://fr.news.yahoo.com/info-m6-aeroport-de-roissy-des-fiches-s-avaient-acces-a-la-piste-181429268.html

Paris Match interview:  http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Societe/La-France-est-l-ennemi-numero-un-de-l-Etat-islamique-837513

RT 1:3 fake IDs  https://www.rt.com/news/316570-eu-false-syrian-refugees/

Blic :  http://www.blic.rs/Vesti/Drustvo/606473/SVETSKA-EKSKLUZIVA-Ovo-je-terorista-koji-je-prosao-Grcku-Srbiju-Hrvatsku-Austriju-DA-BI-SEJAO-SMRT-U-PARIZU


Syrian passport:  https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/status/644056427716345856/photo/1

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/14/paris-attacks-european-leaders-link-terror-threats-to-immigration

 http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/poll-third-syrian-refugees-are-isis-sympathizers

 https://www.aei.org/publication/poll-13-of-syrian-refugees-are-isis-sympathizers/

Blog - Russian submarines in the Arctic - the saga continues (eng)

Russian submarines in the Arctic - the saga continues

Hold the front page, it's no longer submarines in Sweden, but this time a case involving a mystery sub in the Arctic. The topic of Russia and its military 'creeping around' is growing legs. When will this media 'non-news' about subs and Russia get kicked into touch? Here is the title of the Daily Telegraph article by Ali Kefford in question: "Mystery submarine sighting gives clue to Russia's Arctic ambitions".

The article starts with "A chance encounter by scientists adrift on an Arctic ice floe has given the first clues to a new Cold War being played out in in the far north, where Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his ambitions to extend Russian influence."

The article relates the story of Norwegian scientists who spotted an unknown submarine on the 16th of October.  The article states that it a submarine that is an "aging nuclear research vessel".  The writer considers the research vessel as "part of President Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to an area rich in oil and gas".

Submarines Arctic patrols

Interesting turn of words from the writer, "chance encounter", as if it is rare as hens' teeth to see surfacing subs in the Arctic. However, if as the article suggests, it is the "Orenburg", then, it was indeed a" chance encounter", since the Russian sub carries out sensitive missions for the Russian Ministry of Defense's Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research (GUGI).   Even so, the reality is that it isn't that rare for submarines to turn up in the Arctic; especially US ones and other NATO subs. In fact, just by trawling through the internet, several videos are online, featuring submarines breaking through the ice" in the polar region on exercise:

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEGW8mQRtLM - "US Navy Submarine Surfaces In The Arctic Ocean", USS Connecticut in March of 2011, along with the USS New Hampshire, taking part in in Ice Exercise 2011 (ICEX-2011)

• or the USS Alexandria near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, March 15, 2007, while on exercise with HMS Tireless, taking part in ICEX 07   - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDlTq53b438

The article continues by giving the long & lat, (89° 17.5' N, 172° 42.9' W) of the location as well stating that "She has been potentially identified as the Delta class boat Orenburg." 

Maybe the Russians just wanted to have a swim alongside their sub or is it the Russian version of the ice bucket challenge, the sea being the bucket!!!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ2oFTuyYck.  The sub in the video is also a Detla class. Another video showing a russian sub in the Arctic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2wOOrs01kE

Ali Kefford finishes his article off by picking up again on his unnamed senior naval source; (once more a case of citing anonymous sources): "There is almost certainly a US submarine there now," said the source. "And if there isn't one there permanently below the Arctic ice cap, the High North will be on a periodic patrol cycle. The point being made by the unnamed senior naval source is the fact that submarines do in fact patrol and go on exercises in the Arctic, including the US.

Sadly it seems to be journalistic de rigeur now not to bother finding named sources of information or to do some meaningful or measured research on Russia & its interests in the Arctic; scaremongering the readers by using Cold War rhetoric is much easier these days. The journalist did not even provide any information whatsoever over the reasons as to why Russia is keenly involved in the Arctic.
 
 Russia & the Arctic

Let me step in where the Daily Telegraph left off.  Basically, there are two aspects to the Russian involvement in the Arctic.  A huge chunk of the Arctic region is in fact within Russia's maritime borders. Ali Kefford in his article has skipped over this fact by simply omitting to state where the 6000 troops are being sent. Some of these troops have already set foot on Kotelny Island, located in the Novosibirsk Archipelago, one of the first military bases being set up in the Arctic.

The international legal framework that sets maritime borders is called the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS outlines a country's Exclusive Economic Zone, (EEZ),  that can be up to 200 nm from the coast. The Coastal State, in this case, Russia, has the right to exploit natural resources lying in the seabed, under the provisions of Article 56(1)(a). This dry piece of information might not seem of interest to an average hack, yet, is a piece of the puzzle, that was completely missed out,  when referring to as "Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to an area rich in oil and gas".

Sea continental shelf research

What Ali Kefford is also  possibly alluding to is the ongoing scramble to claim Arctic territory, beyond current maritime borders, by the US, Canada, Denmark, Russia and Norway. It is said that that the Arctic accounts for 25% of the world's undiscovered oil & gas resources, as well as other mineral resources such as copper. Potential ownership of such resources boils down to outright legal ownership of various areas of the Arctic shelf boundaries.  Here is the devil in the detail, since UNCLOS also deals with the issue of a continental shelf, as a country can in very limited circumstances, extend its right as a State to exploit it beyond the 200 nm EEZ. The Siberian Shelf, which just happens to be the largest continental shelf on Earth, is a likely hotspot for serious oil & gas exploration. It extends out to 1500 kilometers (930 miles) offshore.

Russia has had its eye on extending its national shelf for decades & to this end they have been busily researching the area. The Russians have lately centered their geological research on the Mendeleyev Ridge. The research vessel "Orenburg" also took part in Arktika-2012, an  expedition along the Mendeleyev Ridge. However, any final decision on ownership will be made by the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, (CLCS). How dull that Russia is in fact submitting their claims for territorial claims in line with the well-established remit of UNCLOS.  Russia had its first bid rejected by the CLCS back in 2001 and got told to go and do some research.  It is no secret that Canada along with Denmark have equally researched and prepared their bids for territorial claims in the region.

 Economic resources and ownership

The Daily Telegraph article completely misses the point about Russia, (literally personified by Vladimir Putin), and the connection between its existing de facto territorial jurisdiction with its extensive energy resources.  Given both the size of the Siberian Shelf, as well a very long Arctic coastline, it is clear that Russia wants to have a wide security presence in the region.  






Additionally, Russia has drawn up plans in developing further the Northern Sea shipping route as a commercial sea transport corridor. When ice-free, shipping using the route can cut 7000km off of a journey between Rotterdam & Tokyo, compared with using the Suez Canal.  Consequently, Russia sees the need for enhanced oversight over this strategic sea route. Yet as it stands, there are few reliable installations along the coast that could provide the necessary security and also vital Search & Rescue (SAR) infrastructure.

The military dimension

Given that Russia has already important oil & gas assets in the Arctic already sitting within its EEZ, it would be daft not to provide security for them, particularly in the Yamal, Nenets and Kara Sea regions, all located in the Russian EEZ. Yet this is precisely President Putin has set out to do and is continuing to do so.  Russia has been increasing its military presence in the Arctic for a few years, so nothing really newsworthy about deploying 6000 troops to an "area rich in oil and gas". Did the Telegraph journalist actually research the area in question? He only obliquely hinted at it.  Seriously, it is really a non-issue since all of the Russians troops will be actually on Russian land. Back in 2011, the creation of a special Arctic Forces brigade both in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk was proposed by Moscow, however this was put on hold.  The Arctic has been home to Russian submarines for a while - it is called the Northern Fleet and routinely deploys them in the Arctic.

 Currently, Russia is in the process of reopening a number of Soviet era bases in the Arctic such as Kotelny Island and Tiski on the mainland.  As the Russians are strengthening their military presence in their territorial part of the Arctic, so have Canada & the US ramped up its presence as well. Similarly to the Russians, the US produced in February 2014 a strategy roadmap document covering the Arctic. The US Navy principally deploys submarines in the region, as part of its own power projection. Equally NATO can be seen to be muscling on the Arctic region, through its 2014 Norwegian-led Cold Response exercise. "Our ambition is a clear NATO footprint in the north," said State Secretary Roger Ingebrigtsen for the Norwegian Defense Ministry. So the regional power games are about having a physical presence or footprint.

Russia is a significant and key player in Arctic cooperation, and the ongoing reverberations in response to events in Ukraine are being echoed in the Arctic as well, which might deepen the impact on the Russian Arctic footprint. Russia has a dominant role in security & maritime matters in the region, especially within its own maritime borders. Yet pitifully the Daily Telegraph showed a lack of maturity & common sense by refusing to even acknowledge this.
 
References:
 
"Mystery submarine sighting gives clue to Russia's Arctic ambitions", 28 Oct 2014, accessed 28 October 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11191777/Mystery-submarine-sighting-gives-clue-to-Russias-Arctic-ambitions.html
 
Who Owns the Arctic? A Stocktaking of Territorial Disputes, The Global Journal, December 21, 2011, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/439/
 
"Russia's Claim in the Arctic and the Vexing Issue of Ridges in UNCLOS," by Mark Benitah, in the American Society of International Law (Nov. 2007).
 
 "Interview with French expert in geopolitics A. Latsa: "The Arctic has never been so important" Route Magazine, 25/03/2013, accessed 28 oct, 2014, http://routemag.com/2013/03/25/interview-with-french-expert-in-geopolitics-a-latsa-the-arctic-has-never-been-so-important/
 
"The United States Navy Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030".
 
"Russia says no need for NATO in Arctic, expands own military presence", The Barents Observer, 22/10/2014, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://barentsobserver.com/en/security/2014/10/russia-says-no-need-nato-arctic-expands-own-military-presence-22-10
 
Sneak peak at Russia's 'under renovation' Arctic base, RT, 18 September 2014, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://rt.com/news/188712-arctic-russia-military-base/
 
"Arctic Resources: The fight for the coldest place on Earth heats up," RT, April 15, 2014, accessed 28 Oct, 2014, http://rt.com/news/arctic-reclamation-resources-race-524/.

 


(Cartoon (c) Kevin KAL Kallaugher, The Economist)