The EU, migrants & Visegrad 4

Hungry, Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia are collectively known as the Visegrad 4 or V4, which will celebrate its 25th anniversary next year.  PM Orbán congratulated the new Polish PM, and urged "the necessity of more intensive coordination between Visegrad nations."

Back in August, the V4 countries caused a stir in the EU by throwing a spanner in the EU works by refusing to accept an EU wide quota on migrants.   The French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius responded by saying that this was "scandalous” and also said that the border barrier being built by Hungary at that time "did not respect Europe's common values".

[Ed-  I’m wondering what he has to say now that Slovenia’s is putting up its own border barrier, (sorry “temporary technical hurdles” in form of razor wired fences).   Or the fact that of Austria has constructed  its own fence on the border with Slovenia.]

Interestingly, the V4 countries did manage to shift Brussel’s position on quotas, as can been seen in their communique in September.
http://www.visegradgroup.eu/calendar/2015/joint-communique-of-the-150911  

On the ground, the Visegrad 4 countries are providing border patrols along the Hungarian border with Serbia.   This ties in with what Vitkor Orban stated recently that the EU must first establish its own lines of defence.

https://twitter.com/Kittensinurface/status/663438174618787840

http://www.defence24.com/271521,polish-border-patrol-units-in-hungary

There is still a deepening unease within the Visegrad 4 countries on the handling of the huge influx of migrants since late summer.  Hungary is acting in accordance with the Schengen Agreement that obliges countries with external Schengen borders to protect it from illegal crossings.  Yet the EU Commission countered a few times this by stating that Hungary was going against EU values!

"The commission does not promote the use of fences and encourages member states to use alternative measures," Natasha Bertaud, the European Commission's spokeswoman for justice and home affairs, in July.

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/european-commission-hungary-serbia-wall-fence-illegal-migrants/27079829.html

Recently they have deployed around 300 police officers to patrol the Greek – Turkish borders.

http://hungarytoday.hu/news/visegrad-countries-deploy-300-strong-joint-police-force-patrol-greeces-boder-turkey-21447 

The Hungarian president, Viktor Orban, is quite scathing about the EU leadership, especially in relation with Turkey.  Last week, in Malta, he said “We do not want the EU to sit down to negotiate with Turkey, while giving the impression that it is Turkey which will save the EU. One cannot negotiate if the other party thinks that they are their negotiating partner’s last hope”.

On one hand, the ‘rebellion’ by the Visegrad 4 seems to be a clear cut example of disunity within EU ranks.  On the other hand, it also seems that they are acting as a kind of lifebuoy for the whole EU by taking the initiative & micromanaging a response themselves. This potentially might backfire on them, if Brussels does in the long run doesn't take into consideration the V4 countries’ political agenda concerning the ‘migrant’ flow into the EU. The signals from Brussels are still erratic to say the least, with Berlin still taking the limelight but at the same time staying quite inflexible.

According to a German newspaper Politico, Merkel said  “Those who can consider themselves lucky that they have lived to see the end of the Cold War now think that one can completely stay out of certain developments of globalisation. It just strikes me as somehow very weird,” Merkel then said "“When someone says ‘This is not my Europe, I won't accept Muslims,' I have to say, this is not negotiable".  Merkel’s message from Germany didn't always reach a sympathetic audience. A Czech Republic newspaper, Mladá fronta Dnes, stated that it wanted Merkel to be replaced by someone “with a sense of reality” & then said that “We must quickly forget how Germany tried to force us and the other Visegrád states into obedience, how it threatened and insulted us.”

It is quite revealing how the V4 are effectively responding in their own way to the sudden influx of migrants, and did so quickly, albeit in small measured steps. While Berlin generates more hot air & seen to be doing practically nothing at all to stem the migrant flow, it seems that the V4 are putting talk, aka “jaw jaw” into real concrete measures by micromanaging a partial unified response to the ongoing challenges, yet still remaining within the EU framework.

Lately, a number of high level V4 politicians seem to be pulling away from Brussel’s position on several issues.  First we had Viktor Orban firmly nailing his political colours to the mast in a number of speeches, now we have Miloš Zeman, the president of the Czech Republic, with his latest defiant speech regarding dissent views, migrants and Islam.   Then of course, a political swing towards the right in Poland recently took place along with a change in policy direction.  So that leaves Slovakia.  Well, the Slovak President doesn’t seem to share the same memo as his other V4 politicians.   AndrejKiska said that the Visegrad 4 cannot become a "troublemaking bloc... with a 'blame it on Brussels' attitude".  Yet, Robert Fico, the prime minister took different line back in August:

"We strongly reject any quotas ... If a mechanism for automatic redistribution of migrants is adopted, then we will wake up one day and have 100,000 people from the Arab world and that is a problem I would not like Slovakia to have." And Fico also send that “"As long as I am prime minister, mandatory quotas will not be implemented on Slovak territory."

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/justice-home-affairs/slovakia-calls-visegrad-summit-oppose-migrant-quotas-317199

Looking at the wider context: George Soros, of Hungarian descent, apparently outlined a 6 point plan in which the following is stated:

“First, the EU has to accept at least a million asylum-seekers annually for the foreseeable future. And, to do that, it must share the burden fairly – a principle that a qualified majority finally established at last Wednesday’s summit.”

http://www.georgesoros.com/essays/rebuilding-the-asylum-system/

As if reading the Soros script, Brussels & Berlin did made calls to share the load out to all members of EU, through a quota system.  Notably the Visegrad 4 have officially stated that they are very unhappy at the 'political correctness' behind what they perceived as being 'failed' EU migrant quotas being imposed upon them.  The Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó, said “Efforts at political correctness, as well as hypocrisy, prevent some from admitting that this is not a migrant crisis, but mass migration”. Moreover he too alluded to Berlin’s initial handling of the migrant influx, when he said that it is unacceptable to make political statements which that can be interpreted as “invitations”.

The mandatory imposition of an EU –wide quota has now been openly challenged by all of the V4 countries, with Poland being the latest member to do so. The Polish foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, has recently expressed his concerns over the whole migrant EU quota issue, after the terror attacks in Paris.

Soros’s article specifically mentions Viktor Orban’s own 6 point plan, where he criticizes it since in his opinion it “subordinates the human rights of asylum-seekers and migrants to the security of borders, threatens to divide and destroy the EU by renouncing the values on which it was built…”    The sparring match between Soros & Orban is quite evident.  Orban is not apparently approved of by the EU elites for a while now.  The MSM, right from the very beginning of the migrant ‘crisis, has been highly critical of the Hungarian government’s move in trying to the situation.  Now we can see that the V4 countries are lending a hand to Hungary.   Will this on-going political saber-rattling have wider repercussions on the V4 countries as a whole? Will Brussels be rattled by Orban and also V4’s general political direction?

The reality is that the V4 countries are not only deepening their cooperation between themselves but also wider across with Balkan countries. The Visegrad countries are currently holding a meeting in Prague along with Western Balkans states.  It is interesting to note that Slovenia is increasingly participating in the V4 group, but it is not as a member though. Also noteworthy was a trilateral meeting between Greece, Bulgaria & Hungary at the beginning of November.

While Brussels & Berlin appear to be totally frozen like a rabbit in the lights of a car, the V4 countries are continuing to establish & consolidate their political agendas and measures.

Some perspectives [eng]

In the wake Friday 13th Paris attacks

The US administration has been increasingly bellicose about Assad lately.  The US secretary for Defence Ashton Carter talked about more ground troops needed in Syria.   It seems that the US war-mongering plate isn’t quite full, what with the existing hundreds of US bases across the world & the ongoing “war on terror” in places such as Iraq, Nigeria or Afghanistan.

It could be said that the US war hawks’ manna from heaven materialized on late Friday evening in Paris.  What remains to be seen is the final outcome of the G20 summit in Turkey where in haste President Hollande has sent his foreign minister, Laurent Fabius in his place. On a side note, just today, Hollande had an hour long talk with Sarkozy, one of the instigators of the NATO campaign against Libya.  Alternatively, will Turkey’s Erdogan be given free rein to openly intervene in Syria?

Could this be part of a plan to either invoke Article 5 of NATO or creation of NATO "no fly zones"? Is this is the West’s pretext or sorry excuse to attack Syria, since the political & media elites established narrative is stubbornly centred on blaming Assad for all the terrorism in Syria? How many times have we heard Establishment commentators say or write that Assad supports IS or that Russia is apparently the airforce for ISIS? The buzz continues to make its rounds.


This is does not bode well for Syria or Russia, with a hint of possibility of French troops being sent to Syria, as part of the US created “global coalition”. Just a little reminder that the French aircraft carrier has been re-deployed back to the Persian Gulf, ostensibly to fight IS.  Odd, given that it was in the Persian Gulf to assist in combating IS in the first place. But 16/11/15 Hollande has stated that the aircraft carrier will go to the eastern Med instead.

Assad repeatedly warned us in the West, even back in 2012 but the EU political elites simply dismissed it out of hand:

 "What France suffered from savage terror is what the Syrian people have been enduring for over five years. And it is not possible to dissociate what happened yesterday in France with what happened in Beirut two days ago, because terrorism remains terrorism. It is not necessary to consider it as a strike in a different place, Syrian land, Yemeni land, Libyan, or  French ground : in reality, it is one and the same global field."

" Unfortunately, European leaders did not give importance to our statements, but they thought that we were threatening them,  they have not even learnt the lessons from the Charlie Hebdo events in January. Their statements that they are against terrorism have no value."

The Paris attacks showed another level of sophistication not previously seen before, which has taken some security experts by surprise.  Compared to the Charlie Hebdo Paris attacks in January, the latest attacks had a well-organized command & control that facilitated these terror attacks, with links with Belgium & possibly back to IS controlled territories in the Middle-East. The boomerang effect is here to stay indefinitely largely due to the West warped understanding of upholding democratic values.

Many people will plead either ignorance or complete stupidity about the level of Islamic terror attacks.  So let’s take a trip down memory lane, courtesy of Der Speigel. Back then in 2005, it was about al-Qaida, the scary bogeyman of the West, now transformed into the more brutal IS.  The article outlines its strategy, step by step and describes “a lunatic plan conceived by fanatics who live in their own world, but who continually manage to break into the real world with their brutal acts of violence.”  Notice how the Third step from 2007 to 2010 is focused on Syria.  “The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared.” Dose of deja-vu anyone?

Notwithstanding the deliberate Western media & political obscuring of the origins & tangled web of connections between the terror groups, most of the West’s intelligence services clearly know about the origins of IS, as succinctly put by a French general to the French Senate in 2014:

“Who is the doctor that created this Frankenstein? Let’s clearly state it since it has consequences, it is the US. [But also] Other players out of short-term political policies; who appear to the West’s friends. Other players, through complacency or with deliberate intent, have contributed to this construction and to its strengthening. But the first culprits are the United States.” 
Général Vincent Desportes, 17th December 2014

Quelle surprise – pas! One of the reported attackers was apparently known since 2010 to the French security services, under the famous and notorious “Fiche S”, ("sûreté d'Etat"), system, used for known radicalized individuals.  Seriously what are these people doing loose in France, if they don’t like the French lifestyle & values?  It doesn't bear thinking that some even had access to airside parts of Roissy-Charles-de-Gaulle airport.

It seems that some of  those not only had been given a free pass by the authorities, including not going to prison  but actually went as far as going to Syria to fight over there. The problem is when the chickens come home to roost.

Marc Trévidic,a French anti-terrorist judge, mentioned in September 2015 that "The real war that the IS intends to carry out on our soil has not yet begun." He added that " the men of Daech have the means, the money and the ability to easily acquire as many guns as they want and organize mass attacks." 

ISIS is both supported behind the scenes by Turkey, a NATO member state.  NATO has either turned a blind eye or given the ok to the Salafi/Wahabi proxy army.   Equally disturbing is the fact that Western corporate media outlets have done doing their best to whitewash IS and cover up the EU, Qatari, Saudi, US & Turkey backing of these evil shits.

It was originally reported that 2 passports of the alleged attackers were Syrian & are that of recent ‘migrants’, into the EU. A Greek official commented that "“Either this person passed through Greece posing as a refugee, or along the way he bought or stole the passport. At this stage either scenario is possible.”  It is possible that the names M. al Mahmod & Ahmad Almohammad are false.  Information on one of them was given a Serbian newspaper. [Update French police confirm that 2 passports are bogus & probably forged in Turkey].  2 of the Stade de France suicide bombers did arrive in Greece on the in October in a  boat group of 200. A week later, the French prime minister Valls said on France 2 TV station, "These individuals took advantage of the refugee crisis... of the chaos, perhaps, for some of them to slip in" to France".  
 
German authorities have reported that  1 in 3 of the wannabe European settlers have fake IDs, where " at some border crossings 90 percent claim to be from Syria." That must be not so heartening news for European law enforcement, the fact that fraudulent use of documents is OK & hence no need to tighten border controls.  Judging from videos showing the migrant flow into Europe & into the Schengen area, there are a lot out there that are pretending to be Syrian, even if they don’t speak Arabic!

Cynically speaking of course, let's take inspiration from Soros,to allow the EU elites to completely throw open the borders, & do away with Schengen.   That way, no one will know how many mischief makers, criminals & terrorists enter Europe. That fits in well with what is being stated in the MSM, "Yet, the possibility that one of the attackers came from Syria has already been seized upon as an opportunity to criticise and alter refugee policy not just in Europe, but across the world" France 24.  The bottom line is don't dare to criticise or alter the EU's 'virtuous' migration policy since it is deemed to be non-negotiable.

 Once more, very few searching questions are being asked about the widespread circulation of mostly fake Syrian passports, seemingly coming from Turkey! Despite this lax attitude on the part of the MSM, one enterprising Dutch journalist managed to obtain a forged Syrian passport  & ID card with a photo of the Dutch prime minister, all for 750€! Furthermore, 10,000 fake Syrian passports have been seized in Bulgaria alone, a drop in the ocean compared to the estimated 150,000 refugees who have recently entered the EU with false IDs. 1 or 2 of them  did take advantage of the chaotic influx into the EU and subsequently  turned up in Paris where they killed ordinary people out & about & enjoying their Friday evening.

Calls including by the French Greens, have been made not to stigmatize migrants in the wake of the attacks, but have ever so quiet on making suggestions as to how to deal security questions arising from the huge migrant flow. At the same time there is increasing evidence being provided by police on a potential terror networks stretching across Europe.  Certain mainstream media outlets feel greatly concerned about the political negative fall-out that the Paris attacks have had on the migrant flows into the Schengen area. In a nutshell, here is what the Guardian has to say: "Increasing fear of Muslims being associated with terror attacks; with potentially more hatred shown by far-right groups".  Apparently we need to be more concerned about so called far-right groups than actual indoctrinated murderers returning from the Syrian conflict, planning killing sprees in Europe and across the world.


Yet, 13% of Syrian refugees in Lebanese, Jordanian & Turkish refugee camps, viewed IS in a 'positive' or "positive to a certain extent". This is according to a 2014 report, the Arab Opinion Index Team -  Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, based in Doha, Qatar.  So a probably a fair sprinkling of IS sympathisers if not supporters in  are scattered to the four corners of the EU, largely thanks to Merkel & Erdogan's actions in the summer of 2015.  This does not help other Syrian refugees either, since a large proportion, 73% have a negative view of IS.  We have all found ourselves in uncharted waters, with various key state & regional players bit by bit revealing their geopolitical  true colours & long-term intentions, such as the US & Saudi Arabia.  Other key players simply have melted into the night, such the EU, due to a complete inability to take concrete measures.

"Europe has not yet become aware of its incompatibility with IS. But as long as it exists, Europe will not resume its former way of life. It is a truth that is not fun"

Alexey  Puchkov, Head of foreign affairs committee, Duma, Russia

Often cited by establishment media and intensely disliked by EU elites,Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, had previously warned about the unchecked "tidal wave" of migrants entering into Europe: 

“Everything which is now taking place before our eyes threatens to have explosive consequences for all of Europe… If Europe does not return to the path of common sense, it will find itself laid low in a battle for its fate.”

It is not as if we have not been warned about the outrageous behaviour of the US & NATO proxies.  At the end of September, Vladimir Putin clearly alluded to this absurd state of affairs in his speech to the UNGA:

“It is equally irresponsible to manipulate extremist groups and use them to achieve your political goals, hoping that later you’ll find a way to get rid of them or somehow eliminate them.

I’d like to tell those who engage in this: Gentlemen, the people you are dealing with are cruel but they are not dumb. They are as smart as you are. So, it’s a big question: who’s playing who here? The recent incident where the most “moderate” opposition group handed over their weapons to terrorists is a vivid example of that.

We consider that any attempts to flirt with terrorists, let alone arm them, are short-sighted and extremely dangerous. This may make the global terrorist threat much worse, spreading it to new regions around the globe, especially since there are fighters from many different countries, including European ones, gaining combat experience with Islamic State. Unfortunately, Russia is no exception.

Now that those thugs have tasted blood, we can’t allow them to return home and continue with their criminal activities. Nobody wants that, right?”

Unfortunately, ordinary people in Paris were on the receiving end of assault rifles & explosives and over 130+  of them lost their lives.





Links

Blaming Assad  http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34827047

Belgium:  http://fr.sputniknews.com/international/20151115/1019539071/bruxelles-arrestations-paris-attentats.html

Assad TV interview: http://www.medias-presse.info/bachar-al-assad-rappelle-a-la-france-quil-avait-prevenu-des-consequences-du-soutien-de-paris-aux-terroristes/43495

 Der Speigel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/the-future-of-terrorism-what-al-qaida-really-wants-a-369448.html

Général Vincent Desportes, 17th December 2014
http://www.senat.fr/compte-rendu-commissions/20141215/etr.html

 https://fr.news.yahoo.com/info-m6-aeroport-de-roissy-des-fiches-s-avaient-acces-a-la-piste-181429268.html

Paris Match interview:  http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Societe/La-France-est-l-ennemi-numero-un-de-l-Etat-islamique-837513

RT 1:3 fake IDs  https://www.rt.com/news/316570-eu-false-syrian-refugees/

Blic :  http://www.blic.rs/Vesti/Drustvo/606473/SVETSKA-EKSKLUZIVA-Ovo-je-terorista-koji-je-prosao-Grcku-Srbiju-Hrvatsku-Austriju-DA-BI-SEJAO-SMRT-U-PARIZU


Syrian passport:  https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/status/644056427716345856/photo/1

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/14/paris-attacks-european-leaders-link-terror-threats-to-immigration

 http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/poll-third-syrian-refugees-are-isis-sympathizers

 https://www.aei.org/publication/poll-13-of-syrian-refugees-are-isis-sympathizers/

Blog post Orban Hungary & US arm twisting (eng)

Orban is accused by the US of openly ‘flirting’ with Russia.  Likewise, he is also accused in the press of moving Hungary away from “European Values”. The word out on social networks that another “color revolution is in the making” in Hungary.  The question being asked: is Orban going to share the same fate as Yanukovych of Ukraine? Simply for not wanting to kowtow to the US administration’s wishes. Orban has clearly nailed his political colors to the mast back in the summer;  to put Hungary first & foremost, to care about the sovereignty of Hungary & to give Hungary a voice of its own choosing, yet at the same remain in NATO’s & the EU orbit.  He vowed to turn his country into an “illiberal state”.  This does not sit well with the US & EU leaders, simply because it does not fit into the precepts of what the so called “international community” is about.

The US Administration's line is that Hungary "is on the verge of ceding its sovereignty to a neo-fascist dictator getting in bed with Vladimir Putin" as said by McCain in a Senate meeting on
Tuesday 2nd Dec.

Internet image about Hungary: source Twitter

Orban has not been shy to voice his concerns with regards to the risky & rash geopolitical events taking place in the corridors of Washington, Brussels & Moscow.   This has made him an easy target for the US, EU press to label him as being pro-Russian & pro-Putin as well.  The US & EU leadership has been looking for a well-timed excuse to flag up Orban’s lack of democratic credentials. This they found in the form of an alleged tax corruption ‘scandal’, as well as a police raid on several NGOs back in September.

At the end of October, the ruling government in Budapest unwittingly handed their opponents a golden opportunity, to stir up public discontent.   The proposed introduction of an internet tax charge was sufficient enough to trigger visible public protests at the beginning of November.  The Hungarian government subsequently back away from the tax proposals, but the protests then muted into anti-corruption protests. The latest protest on the 17 November was dubbed "Public Outrage Day" & was attended by tens of thousands of protesters.  

The Hungarian government has tried to respond to the US complaints of tax corruption.   The US charge d’affaires,  André Goodfriend, has been invited to clarify the US position at a parliamentary committee.  Yet, the US Administration refuses to divulge further information on the six Hungarian nationals connected to the Hungarian government, who have been banned from entering the US. ,  André Goodfriend is quoted in the press that “he has refused Hungarian government entreaties to give details, citing U.S. privacy laws”. 

As if on cue, the MSM press, in unison, has been highly vocal in their criticisms of Orban’s government; very frequently referring to his supposedly pro-Putin policies & pro-Russian attitudes. Likewise, Viktor Orban has been conveniently labelled as some kind of tyrant, with words such as Viktator”, “Orbanistan” & “The Goulash Archipelago “being used.

A potential clue as to why protests continue to take place could be the fact that the Hungarian government has not backed down on its eager support for the South Stream gas pipeline project, to the dismay of both Washington & Brussels.  There is unwillingness on the part of Budapest to simply toe the US line on severing pro-Russian policies, including that of the South Stream gas pipeline, reverse flow gas supplies to Ukraine & contracts for nuclear power plants. Why is this so? well  as Orban himself said in November that  “we don’t want to move closer to anyone, nor do we want to distance ourselves from anybody”.   This can be clearly glimpsed in his visit to Azerbaijan on the 11th November, where he said that it is in the interest of both Hungary and Europe to bring Azerbaijan gas to Central Europe.  This went almost unnoticed by the EU press, apart from a few who saw this as being part of Orban’s “clever games”.

Orban asserted that, “the presumption that we will fall into the arms of the Russian bear is pure fear-mongering. We are NATO and EU members.” This message has fallen on deaf ears in Washington & Brussels. Take for example Victoria Nuland’s speech in Budapest, in September, where she stated: “"How can you sleep under your NATO Article 5 blanket at night while pushing ‘illiberal democracy' by day; whipping up nationalism; restricting free press; or demonizing civil society?

It remains to be been seen for how long can Orban face up to the ever increasing pressure being subtly applied by the US & EU.   Although the end of South Stream project was annouced by Russia, it will not prevent Orban from being put under ever increasing scrutiny for "getting into with Putin".

Last word

“He is the only Putinist governing in the European Union,” said Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister.

Sources:

http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/10/blog-hungarys-orban-under-microscope-eng.html

US memo - http://www.bbj.hu/politics/memo-details-us-corruption-complaints_88101

http://www.kormany.hu/download/5/4b/20000/SKMBT_C20314111317380.pdf

http://www.politics.hu/20141114/fidesz-insists-on-parliament-committee-hearing-of-us-charge-daffaires

http://advocacy.globalvoicesonline.org/2014/11/10/after-25-years-have-hungarians-finally-realized-they-live-in-a-democracy/

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/hungary-urges-eu-ensure-route-azeri-gas-central-115811520.html#SKT3Fnh

Blog: The light at the end of a pipeline? (eng)

The EU, Russian gas wars - (with a little help from the US)

The EU is determined in reducing its energy dependence on Russia gas, regardless of the political costs involved. The EU fears it is open to blackmail by Russia, rather than being seen as a source of revenue.  This fear has intensified as a result of the tensions in Ukraine, despite the 40 years of trade between first the Soviet Union & now Russia. Russian gas supplies to Europe could be reduced by using other alternative energy supplies, but at a high cost.  Equally, EU members states are tangled up with their EU environmental rules.  For instance, Germany itself is moving away from using coal, thereby potentially needing more gas supplies, as well as renewable energy sources to make any shortfall.  The key potential winner & loser in this energy gas security tug of war is Russia.  There are drawsbacks to all of the EU proposals for reducing dependence on Russian gas. 

#Russian #gas supplies to #Europe http://t.co/m08p3tQ22r pic.twitter.com/VTvPaIR4yp
— EBB (@EBB_Biodiesel) November 7, 2014

In autumn 2013, the nerve centre of the EU, the European Commission, started an investigation into the South Stream pipeline project, as it was seen to violate the provisions of the European Union’s Third Energy Package.  This EU rule is designed to stop monopolies, as well as  promote competition & diversification between energy suppliers and transit routes.  This would require a separation in ownership as well.

South Stream project

The EU insistence that any new or amended contracts with Gazprom, need to be subject to the provisions of the Third Energy Package, is proving to be a big headache for the Russian supplier.  This opinion seems to be at odds with the comments from Donald Tusk, President of the European Council,  who stated that "Europe should confront Russia’s monopolistic position with a single European body charged with buying its gas"; effectively one monopoly versus another one, at the expense of each EU member state.

The contested element of the Third Energy Package is that half the capacity of the pipeline is required to be made available to independent suppliers.  The snag in all of this the pipeline is mostly financed by Russian money & Gazprom is the sole supplier & owner.  Thus it would need a special EU exemption to ship gas to Europe. Interestingly similar lively debates took place over the construction of the South Stream's twin, the Nord Stream pipeline, in the Baltic.

In March 2014,The European Commission decided not to exclude part of Nord Stream's pipeline, Opal, ( the German section), from the Third Energy Package. The result is that a 50% pipeline capacity has been set to allow other suppliers to use it.  The problem is no-one else has taken up the spare capacity on the pipeline. Additionally, due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the EU & Russia over Ukraine, the European Commission has pushed back the application for an exemption, until January 2015.

Of course, none of this would be the geopolitical hot potato that is it is now, if it wasn't for Ukraine, since it is seen to be a high risk for transit of Russian gas, principally due to the "gas wars" of 2006 & 2009, which left the EU in a highly vulnerable political & energy crisis.  
The tensions in Ukraine is driving the EU to take more action against Russian gas supplies. There is also increasing perception in Brussels & Washington that Russian gas is Putin's choke-hold on the EU.   

The construction of South Stream would negate the Ukrainian transit risk, but so would the political leverage of Ukraine as a transit country. Clearly both the US & the EU are aware of this and hence the EU 'spanners' are being put into the works of the South Stream project, quite probably at the behest of the US Administration.  A glimpse into the US administration's mindset was given by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Vitkor Orban, this week, when he said that the US  was putting pressure on the Hungarian government over the South Stream pipeline.  More direct are the words of Matthew Bryza, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, who suggested that:" ‘Europe can do without Russian gas; it is Moscow that cannot afford to carry through its threat.’ President Putin recently remarked that the South Stream delays were of a political character. 

Countries involved with the South Stream project are quite unhappy with the EU's decision to suspend construction & have expressed their “commitment” to it.  The Italians, Austrians, Hungarians, Bulgarians & Serbians remain keen supporters of the project. Hungary & Serbia are now at odds with the EU due to their positions on the implementation of South Stream. Even the Italian government is concerned, as it wants to reduce its reliance on gas from  North Africa, (Libya!).  Italy's state secretary for European affairs, Sandro Gozi stated in an interview in July that:“We think South Stream should go ahead, as it would improve the diversification of gas routes to Europe.” He also added that was a need to first alternative solutions in"how to get fuels," before halting the South Stream project. Ironically so was Federica Mogherini before she became EU foreign policy chief.

Ironically, the EU had previously pushed for the creation of the Nabucco pipeline, connecting gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe. However, it did not receive sufficient political support for it to develop. The EU was not deterred by this setback as it is currently supporting another project - the TAP pipeline, again from the Caspian Sea via Turkey to Europe.  This would enable the EU to diversify its gas supplies, away from Russian gas.

The  knee-jerk reaction by the EU to favor the Nabucco or the TAP pipelines may seem to have some substance.  Nevertheless, it is equally short-sighted, since reducing Russian gas supplies would benefit greatly Turkey, as the alternative gas transit state to Europe. This could also have unforeseen consequences for the EU.  

The narrow focus on  Gazprom as a monopoly shows that the EU is fixated on Russia, since this is not the only monopoly that dominates the EU sphere, take for instance Amazon or Microsoft, who have an unequal slice of the pie.  However they come under less scrutiny than Gazprom these days. Is this a case of blinkered thinking on the part of the EU leadership?


The final word

Vaclav Baruska, the Czech Republic's energy security envoy said, "We simply expect either no transit or unpredictable transit this winter."  Prague evidently knows about the past habits of Ukrainian authorities, the level of corruption which could still jeopardise gas transit through Ukraine.

Background Info

GAS INFRASTRUCTURE -Main European routes are:

Nord Stream (Baltic Sea) with a capacity of 55 bcm per year,
Yamal-Europe (Belarus) – 33 bcm per year,
Soyuz (Ukraine) – 80 bcm per year
and Blue Stream (Turkey) – 16 bcm per year,

http://www.energypost.eu/everything-always-wanted-know-russian-gas-supplies-europe/

Notes:

*The European Union’s Third Energy Package is a legislative package for an internal gas and electricity market in the European Union. Its purpose is to further open up gas and electricity markets in the European Union.

*South Stream:  The project started in 2002, with first deliveries due in 2016, and it was  expected to be fully operational in 2018:
 a capacity of  63 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year;
2400 km in length;
15% of European gas supply market

*Matthew Bryza, director of the International Centre for Defence Studies:
 "Russia would also be jeopardising its long-term position as Europe's principal gas supplier, by allowing the US, Australia and Mozambique to gain a foothold in this lucrative market. Moreover, Russia cannot cut off natural gas flows without doing permanent damage to its own natural gas reservoirs. In short, Europe can do without Russian gas; it is Moscow that cannot afford to carry through its threat. European leaders should not argue themselves out of tougher actions to stop Mr Putin's military adventurism in Europe's east."

*The most likely sources of gas via the TAP would be Azerbaijan,Turkmenistan in the Caspian region, Iran, and the Kurdish area of Iraq. 

*Turkey is in fact one of the largest recipients of Russian gas, with an estimated 24.57 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2013, which only roughly 10% less than the combined total Russian gas supplied for Austria, Hungary, Poland, Czech Rep & Slovakia.

Sources:

http://www.energypost.eu/mr-tusk-planet-live-century/

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_07_01/Budapest-not-to-refuse-from-South-Stream-project-prime-minister-8032/ 

 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES),

 http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/NG-92.pdf

 http://www.eurotopics.net/en/home/presseschau/archiv/archiv_dossier/DOSSIER149684-Sanctions-against-Russia-divide-the-EU

 http://russia-insider.com/en/business_society/2014/11/12/09-03-49am/google_amazon_and_apple_less_transparent_gazprom