Blog post Orban Hungary & US arm twisting (eng)

Orban is accused by the US of openly ‘flirting’ with Russia.  Likewise, he is also accused in the press of moving Hungary away from “European Values”. The word out on social networks that another “color revolution is in the making” in Hungary.  The question being asked: is Orban going to share the same fate as Yanukovych of Ukraine? Simply for not wanting to kowtow to the US administration’s wishes. Orban has clearly nailed his political colors to the mast back in the summer;  to put Hungary first & foremost, to care about the sovereignty of Hungary & to give Hungary a voice of its own choosing, yet at the same remain in NATO’s & the EU orbit.  He vowed to turn his country into an “illiberal state”.  This does not sit well with the US & EU leaders, simply because it does not fit into the precepts of what the so called “international community” is about.

The US Administration's line is that Hungary "is on the verge of ceding its sovereignty to a neo-fascist dictator getting in bed with Vladimir Putin" as said by McCain in a Senate meeting on
Tuesday 2nd Dec.

Internet image about Hungary: source Twitter

Orban has not been shy to voice his concerns with regards to the risky & rash geopolitical events taking place in the corridors of Washington, Brussels & Moscow.   This has made him an easy target for the US, EU press to label him as being pro-Russian & pro-Putin as well.  The US & EU leadership has been looking for a well-timed excuse to flag up Orban’s lack of democratic credentials. This they found in the form of an alleged tax corruption ‘scandal’, as well as a police raid on several NGOs back in September.

At the end of October, the ruling government in Budapest unwittingly handed their opponents a golden opportunity, to stir up public discontent.   The proposed introduction of an internet tax charge was sufficient enough to trigger visible public protests at the beginning of November.  The Hungarian government subsequently back away from the tax proposals, but the protests then muted into anti-corruption protests. The latest protest on the 17 November was dubbed "Public Outrage Day" & was attended by tens of thousands of protesters.  

The Hungarian government has tried to respond to the US complaints of tax corruption.   The US charge d’affaires,  André Goodfriend, has been invited to clarify the US position at a parliamentary committee.  Yet, the US Administration refuses to divulge further information on the six Hungarian nationals connected to the Hungarian government, who have been banned from entering the US. ,  André Goodfriend is quoted in the press that “he has refused Hungarian government entreaties to give details, citing U.S. privacy laws”. 

As if on cue, the MSM press, in unison, has been highly vocal in their criticisms of Orban’s government; very frequently referring to his supposedly pro-Putin policies & pro-Russian attitudes. Likewise, Viktor Orban has been conveniently labelled as some kind of tyrant, with words such as Viktator”, “Orbanistan” & “The Goulash Archipelago “being used.

A potential clue as to why protests continue to take place could be the fact that the Hungarian government has not backed down on its eager support for the South Stream gas pipeline project, to the dismay of both Washington & Brussels.  There is unwillingness on the part of Budapest to simply toe the US line on severing pro-Russian policies, including that of the South Stream gas pipeline, reverse flow gas supplies to Ukraine & contracts for nuclear power plants. Why is this so? well  as Orban himself said in November that  “we don’t want to move closer to anyone, nor do we want to distance ourselves from anybody”.   This can be clearly glimpsed in his visit to Azerbaijan on the 11th November, where he said that it is in the interest of both Hungary and Europe to bring Azerbaijan gas to Central Europe.  This went almost unnoticed by the EU press, apart from a few who saw this as being part of Orban’s “clever games”.

Orban asserted that, “the presumption that we will fall into the arms of the Russian bear is pure fear-mongering. We are NATO and EU members.” This message has fallen on deaf ears in Washington & Brussels. Take for example Victoria Nuland’s speech in Budapest, in September, where she stated: “"How can you sleep under your NATO Article 5 blanket at night while pushing ‘illiberal democracy' by day; whipping up nationalism; restricting free press; or demonizing civil society?

It remains to be been seen for how long can Orban face up to the ever increasing pressure being subtly applied by the US & EU.   Although the end of South Stream project was annouced by Russia, it will not prevent Orban from being put under ever increasing scrutiny for "getting into with Putin".

Last word

“He is the only Putinist governing in the European Union,” said Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister.

Sources:

http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/10/blog-hungarys-orban-under-microscope-eng.html

US memo - http://www.bbj.hu/politics/memo-details-us-corruption-complaints_88101

http://www.kormany.hu/download/5/4b/20000/SKMBT_C20314111317380.pdf

http://www.politics.hu/20141114/fidesz-insists-on-parliament-committee-hearing-of-us-charge-daffaires

http://advocacy.globalvoicesonline.org/2014/11/10/after-25-years-have-hungarians-finally-realized-they-live-in-a-democracy/

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/hungary-urges-eu-ensure-route-azeri-gas-central-115811520.html#SKT3Fnh

Blog: The light at the end of a pipeline? (eng)

The EU, Russian gas wars - (with a little help from the US)

The EU is determined in reducing its energy dependence on Russia gas, regardless of the political costs involved. The EU fears it is open to blackmail by Russia, rather than being seen as a source of revenue.  This fear has intensified as a result of the tensions in Ukraine, despite the 40 years of trade between first the Soviet Union & now Russia. Russian gas supplies to Europe could be reduced by using other alternative energy supplies, but at a high cost.  Equally, EU members states are tangled up with their EU environmental rules.  For instance, Germany itself is moving away from using coal, thereby potentially needing more gas supplies, as well as renewable energy sources to make any shortfall.  The key potential winner & loser in this energy gas security tug of war is Russia.  There are drawsbacks to all of the EU proposals for reducing dependence on Russian gas. 

#Russian #gas supplies to #Europe http://t.co/m08p3tQ22r pic.twitter.com/VTvPaIR4yp
— EBB (@EBB_Biodiesel) November 7, 2014

In autumn 2013, the nerve centre of the EU, the European Commission, started an investigation into the South Stream pipeline project, as it was seen to violate the provisions of the European Union’s Third Energy Package.  This EU rule is designed to stop monopolies, as well as  promote competition & diversification between energy suppliers and transit routes.  This would require a separation in ownership as well.

South Stream project

The EU insistence that any new or amended contracts with Gazprom, need to be subject to the provisions of the Third Energy Package, is proving to be a big headache for the Russian supplier.  This opinion seems to be at odds with the comments from Donald Tusk, President of the European Council,  who stated that "Europe should confront Russia’s monopolistic position with a single European body charged with buying its gas"; effectively one monopoly versus another one, at the expense of each EU member state.

The contested element of the Third Energy Package is that half the capacity of the pipeline is required to be made available to independent suppliers.  The snag in all of this the pipeline is mostly financed by Russian money & Gazprom is the sole supplier & owner.  Thus it would need a special EU exemption to ship gas to Europe. Interestingly similar lively debates took place over the construction of the South Stream's twin, the Nord Stream pipeline, in the Baltic.

In March 2014,The European Commission decided not to exclude part of Nord Stream's pipeline, Opal, ( the German section), from the Third Energy Package. The result is that a 50% pipeline capacity has been set to allow other suppliers to use it.  The problem is no-one else has taken up the spare capacity on the pipeline. Additionally, due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the EU & Russia over Ukraine, the European Commission has pushed back the application for an exemption, until January 2015.

Of course, none of this would be the geopolitical hot potato that is it is now, if it wasn't for Ukraine, since it is seen to be a high risk for transit of Russian gas, principally due to the "gas wars" of 2006 & 2009, which left the EU in a highly vulnerable political & energy crisis.  
The tensions in Ukraine is driving the EU to take more action against Russian gas supplies. There is also increasing perception in Brussels & Washington that Russian gas is Putin's choke-hold on the EU.   

The construction of South Stream would negate the Ukrainian transit risk, but so would the political leverage of Ukraine as a transit country. Clearly both the US & the EU are aware of this and hence the EU 'spanners' are being put into the works of the South Stream project, quite probably at the behest of the US Administration.  A glimpse into the US administration's mindset was given by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Vitkor Orban, this week, when he said that the US  was putting pressure on the Hungarian government over the South Stream pipeline.  More direct are the words of Matthew Bryza, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, who suggested that:" ‘Europe can do without Russian gas; it is Moscow that cannot afford to carry through its threat.’ President Putin recently remarked that the South Stream delays were of a political character. 

Countries involved with the South Stream project are quite unhappy with the EU's decision to suspend construction & have expressed their “commitment” to it.  The Italians, Austrians, Hungarians, Bulgarians & Serbians remain keen supporters of the project. Hungary & Serbia are now at odds with the EU due to their positions on the implementation of South Stream. Even the Italian government is concerned, as it wants to reduce its reliance on gas from  North Africa, (Libya!).  Italy's state secretary for European affairs, Sandro Gozi stated in an interview in July that:“We think South Stream should go ahead, as it would improve the diversification of gas routes to Europe.” He also added that was a need to first alternative solutions in"how to get fuels," before halting the South Stream project. Ironically so was Federica Mogherini before she became EU foreign policy chief.

Ironically, the EU had previously pushed for the creation of the Nabucco pipeline, connecting gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe. However, it did not receive sufficient political support for it to develop. The EU was not deterred by this setback as it is currently supporting another project - the TAP pipeline, again from the Caspian Sea via Turkey to Europe.  This would enable the EU to diversify its gas supplies, away from Russian gas.

The  knee-jerk reaction by the EU to favor the Nabucco or the TAP pipelines may seem to have some substance.  Nevertheless, it is equally short-sighted, since reducing Russian gas supplies would benefit greatly Turkey, as the alternative gas transit state to Europe. This could also have unforeseen consequences for the EU.  

The narrow focus on  Gazprom as a monopoly shows that the EU is fixated on Russia, since this is not the only monopoly that dominates the EU sphere, take for instance Amazon or Microsoft, who have an unequal slice of the pie.  However they come under less scrutiny than Gazprom these days. Is this a case of blinkered thinking on the part of the EU leadership?


The final word

Vaclav Baruska, the Czech Republic's energy security envoy said, "We simply expect either no transit or unpredictable transit this winter."  Prague evidently knows about the past habits of Ukrainian authorities, the level of corruption which could still jeopardise gas transit through Ukraine.

Background Info

GAS INFRASTRUCTURE -Main European routes are:

Nord Stream (Baltic Sea) with a capacity of 55 bcm per year,
Yamal-Europe (Belarus) – 33 bcm per year,
Soyuz (Ukraine) – 80 bcm per year
and Blue Stream (Turkey) – 16 bcm per year,

http://www.energypost.eu/everything-always-wanted-know-russian-gas-supplies-europe/

Notes:

*The European Union’s Third Energy Package is a legislative package for an internal gas and electricity market in the European Union. Its purpose is to further open up gas and electricity markets in the European Union.

*South Stream:  The project started in 2002, with first deliveries due in 2016, and it was  expected to be fully operational in 2018:
 a capacity of  63 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year;
2400 km in length;
15% of European gas supply market

*Matthew Bryza, director of the International Centre for Defence Studies:
 "Russia would also be jeopardising its long-term position as Europe's principal gas supplier, by allowing the US, Australia and Mozambique to gain a foothold in this lucrative market. Moreover, Russia cannot cut off natural gas flows without doing permanent damage to its own natural gas reservoirs. In short, Europe can do without Russian gas; it is Moscow that cannot afford to carry through its threat. European leaders should not argue themselves out of tougher actions to stop Mr Putin's military adventurism in Europe's east."

*The most likely sources of gas via the TAP would be Azerbaijan,Turkmenistan in the Caspian region, Iran, and the Kurdish area of Iraq. 

*Turkey is in fact one of the largest recipients of Russian gas, with an estimated 24.57 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2013, which only roughly 10% less than the combined total Russian gas supplied for Austria, Hungary, Poland, Czech Rep & Slovakia.

Sources:

http://www.energypost.eu/mr-tusk-planet-live-century/

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_07_01/Budapest-not-to-refuse-from-South-Stream-project-prime-minister-8032/ 

 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES),

 http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/NG-92.pdf

 http://www.eurotopics.net/en/home/presseschau/archiv/archiv_dossier/DOSSIER149684-Sanctions-against-Russia-divide-the-EU

 http://russia-insider.com/en/business_society/2014/11/12/09-03-49am/google_amazon_and_apple_less_transparent_gazprom

Blog - Russian submarines in the Arctic - the saga continues (eng)

Russian submarines in the Arctic - the saga continues

Hold the front page, it's no longer submarines in Sweden, but this time a case involving a mystery sub in the Arctic. The topic of Russia and its military 'creeping around' is growing legs. When will this media 'non-news' about subs and Russia get kicked into touch? Here is the title of the Daily Telegraph article by Ali Kefford in question: "Mystery submarine sighting gives clue to Russia's Arctic ambitions".

The article starts with "A chance encounter by scientists adrift on an Arctic ice floe has given the first clues to a new Cold War being played out in in the far north, where Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his ambitions to extend Russian influence."

The article relates the story of Norwegian scientists who spotted an unknown submarine on the 16th of October.  The article states that it a submarine that is an "aging nuclear research vessel".  The writer considers the research vessel as "part of President Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to an area rich in oil and gas".

Submarines Arctic patrols

Interesting turn of words from the writer, "chance encounter", as if it is rare as hens' teeth to see surfacing subs in the Arctic. However, if as the article suggests, it is the "Orenburg", then, it was indeed a" chance encounter", since the Russian sub carries out sensitive missions for the Russian Ministry of Defense's Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research (GUGI).   Even so, the reality is that it isn't that rare for submarines to turn up in the Arctic; especially US ones and other NATO subs. In fact, just by trawling through the internet, several videos are online, featuring submarines breaking through the ice" in the polar region on exercise:

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEGW8mQRtLM - "US Navy Submarine Surfaces In The Arctic Ocean", USS Connecticut in March of 2011, along with the USS New Hampshire, taking part in in Ice Exercise 2011 (ICEX-2011)

• or the USS Alexandria near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, March 15, 2007, while on exercise with HMS Tireless, taking part in ICEX 07   - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDlTq53b438

The article continues by giving the long & lat, (89° 17.5' N, 172° 42.9' W) of the location as well stating that "She has been potentially identified as the Delta class boat Orenburg." 

Maybe the Russians just wanted to have a swim alongside their sub or is it the Russian version of the ice bucket challenge, the sea being the bucket!!!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ2oFTuyYck.  The sub in the video is also a Detla class. Another video showing a russian sub in the Arctic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2wOOrs01kE

Ali Kefford finishes his article off by picking up again on his unnamed senior naval source; (once more a case of citing anonymous sources): "There is almost certainly a US submarine there now," said the source. "And if there isn't one there permanently below the Arctic ice cap, the High North will be on a periodic patrol cycle. The point being made by the unnamed senior naval source is the fact that submarines do in fact patrol and go on exercises in the Arctic, including the US.

Sadly it seems to be journalistic de rigeur now not to bother finding named sources of information or to do some meaningful or measured research on Russia & its interests in the Arctic; scaremongering the readers by using Cold War rhetoric is much easier these days. The journalist did not even provide any information whatsoever over the reasons as to why Russia is keenly involved in the Arctic.
 
 Russia & the Arctic

Let me step in where the Daily Telegraph left off.  Basically, there are two aspects to the Russian involvement in the Arctic.  A huge chunk of the Arctic region is in fact within Russia's maritime borders. Ali Kefford in his article has skipped over this fact by simply omitting to state where the 6000 troops are being sent. Some of these troops have already set foot on Kotelny Island, located in the Novosibirsk Archipelago, one of the first military bases being set up in the Arctic.

The international legal framework that sets maritime borders is called the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS outlines a country's Exclusive Economic Zone, (EEZ),  that can be up to 200 nm from the coast. The Coastal State, in this case, Russia, has the right to exploit natural resources lying in the seabed, under the provisions of Article 56(1)(a). This dry piece of information might not seem of interest to an average hack, yet, is a piece of the puzzle, that was completely missed out,  when referring to as "Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to an area rich in oil and gas".

Sea continental shelf research

What Ali Kefford is also  possibly alluding to is the ongoing scramble to claim Arctic territory, beyond current maritime borders, by the US, Canada, Denmark, Russia and Norway. It is said that that the Arctic accounts for 25% of the world's undiscovered oil & gas resources, as well as other mineral resources such as copper. Potential ownership of such resources boils down to outright legal ownership of various areas of the Arctic shelf boundaries.  Here is the devil in the detail, since UNCLOS also deals with the issue of a continental shelf, as a country can in very limited circumstances, extend its right as a State to exploit it beyond the 200 nm EEZ. The Siberian Shelf, which just happens to be the largest continental shelf on Earth, is a likely hotspot for serious oil & gas exploration. It extends out to 1500 kilometers (930 miles) offshore.

Russia has had its eye on extending its national shelf for decades & to this end they have been busily researching the area. The Russians have lately centered their geological research on the Mendeleyev Ridge. The research vessel "Orenburg" also took part in Arktika-2012, an  expedition along the Mendeleyev Ridge. However, any final decision on ownership will be made by the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, (CLCS). How dull that Russia is in fact submitting their claims for territorial claims in line with the well-established remit of UNCLOS.  Russia had its first bid rejected by the CLCS back in 2001 and got told to go and do some research.  It is no secret that Canada along with Denmark have equally researched and prepared their bids for territorial claims in the region.

 Economic resources and ownership

The Daily Telegraph article completely misses the point about Russia, (literally personified by Vladimir Putin), and the connection between its existing de facto territorial jurisdiction with its extensive energy resources.  Given both the size of the Siberian Shelf, as well a very long Arctic coastline, it is clear that Russia wants to have a wide security presence in the region.  






Additionally, Russia has drawn up plans in developing further the Northern Sea shipping route as a commercial sea transport corridor. When ice-free, shipping using the route can cut 7000km off of a journey between Rotterdam & Tokyo, compared with using the Suez Canal.  Consequently, Russia sees the need for enhanced oversight over this strategic sea route. Yet as it stands, there are few reliable installations along the coast that could provide the necessary security and also vital Search & Rescue (SAR) infrastructure.

The military dimension

Given that Russia has already important oil & gas assets in the Arctic already sitting within its EEZ, it would be daft not to provide security for them, particularly in the Yamal, Nenets and Kara Sea regions, all located in the Russian EEZ. Yet this is precisely President Putin has set out to do and is continuing to do so.  Russia has been increasing its military presence in the Arctic for a few years, so nothing really newsworthy about deploying 6000 troops to an "area rich in oil and gas". Did the Telegraph journalist actually research the area in question? He only obliquely hinted at it.  Seriously, it is really a non-issue since all of the Russians troops will be actually on Russian land. Back in 2011, the creation of a special Arctic Forces brigade both in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk was proposed by Moscow, however this was put on hold.  The Arctic has been home to Russian submarines for a while - it is called the Northern Fleet and routinely deploys them in the Arctic.

 Currently, Russia is in the process of reopening a number of Soviet era bases in the Arctic such as Kotelny Island and Tiski on the mainland.  As the Russians are strengthening their military presence in their territorial part of the Arctic, so have Canada & the US ramped up its presence as well. Similarly to the Russians, the US produced in February 2014 a strategy roadmap document covering the Arctic. The US Navy principally deploys submarines in the region, as part of its own power projection. Equally NATO can be seen to be muscling on the Arctic region, through its 2014 Norwegian-led Cold Response exercise. "Our ambition is a clear NATO footprint in the north," said State Secretary Roger Ingebrigtsen for the Norwegian Defense Ministry. So the regional power games are about having a physical presence or footprint.

Russia is a significant and key player in Arctic cooperation, and the ongoing reverberations in response to events in Ukraine are being echoed in the Arctic as well, which might deepen the impact on the Russian Arctic footprint. Russia has a dominant role in security & maritime matters in the region, especially within its own maritime borders. Yet pitifully the Daily Telegraph showed a lack of maturity & common sense by refusing to even acknowledge this.
 
References:
 
"Mystery submarine sighting gives clue to Russia's Arctic ambitions", 28 Oct 2014, accessed 28 October 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11191777/Mystery-submarine-sighting-gives-clue-to-Russias-Arctic-ambitions.html
 
Who Owns the Arctic? A Stocktaking of Territorial Disputes, The Global Journal, December 21, 2011, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/439/
 
"Russia's Claim in the Arctic and the Vexing Issue of Ridges in UNCLOS," by Mark Benitah, in the American Society of International Law (Nov. 2007).
 
 "Interview with French expert in geopolitics A. Latsa: "The Arctic has never been so important" Route Magazine, 25/03/2013, accessed 28 oct, 2014, http://routemag.com/2013/03/25/interview-with-french-expert-in-geopolitics-a-latsa-the-arctic-has-never-been-so-important/
 
"The United States Navy Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030".
 
"Russia says no need for NATO in Arctic, expands own military presence", The Barents Observer, 22/10/2014, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://barentsobserver.com/en/security/2014/10/russia-says-no-need-nato-arctic-expands-own-military-presence-22-10
 
Sneak peak at Russia's 'under renovation' Arctic base, RT, 18 September 2014, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://rt.com/news/188712-arctic-russia-military-base/
 
"Arctic Resources: The fight for the coldest place on Earth heats up," RT, April 15, 2014, accessed 28 Oct, 2014, http://rt.com/news/arctic-reclamation-resources-race-524/.

 


(Cartoon (c) Kevin KAL Kallaugher, The Economist)

Blog Hungary’s Orban under the microscope [eng]

Hungary’s Orban under the microscope

Is a US inspired “colour revolution” or so called “ regime change” going to take place in Hungary?

Apparently, those who constantly throw together new ‘colour revolutions’ consider themselves ‘brilliant artists’ and simply cannot stop. 

Vladimir Putin, Valdai Club 2014

The turning point 

There have been a number of moves by the US and the EU underfoot, putting Hungary under the spotlight for its apparent unwillingness to uphold democratic values.  Victor Orban has been the Prime Minister of Hungary 3 times and was re-elected again in April 2014 with a majority of just over 44%.

The alarm bells probably started ringing loudly in the US and the EU when Orban gave a speech on 26 July 2014, where he stated that “And so in this sense the new state that we are constructing in Hungary is an illiberal state, a non-liberal state.”  He did also mention “similarly to the statements I quoted for you earlier, was also categorised as blasphemy by the liberal world. We had to state that a democracy does not necessarily have to be liberal. Just because a state is not liberal, it can still be a democracy.” He also quoted as “The stars of the international analysts today are Singapore, China, India, Russia and Turkey.” Nb1

 Orban’s speech focuses on the alterative systems to the US led hegemony on so called democratic values. The EU minister of Norway, Vidar Helgesen recently stated in a twitter that “Hungary is failing the democracy test -- and the international community finally seems to be taking action”.  Nb2

   

The US angle

It has become noticeable that the US administration lately is getting more and hotter under their collar with regards to Victor Orban. Why is this so?  The answer is principally is because of his public recalcitrance towards EU sanctions against Russia. Orban stated back in August that the EU sanctions were like ““shooting oneself in the foot.” Some possible context to why he said this:

•        Around 80% of Hungary’s natural gas comes from Russia, (via Ukraine);
•       2.55 billion euros worth of exports to Russia in 2013 alone- (exports potentially slashed);
•       10 billion euro contract with Russia company to upgrade the Paks nuclear plant, (now potentially in jeopardy);
•       Heavy involvement with the $40 billion South Stream gas pipeline project, (on hold)

The Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto recently stated that Hungary was losing over $200,000 every due to the EU sanctions against Russia.   Despite this, the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires André Goodfriend publicly voiced in a news conference last week, the fact that Hungary “"stand firm with the EU, with EU sanctions." Nb3 He also criticised the Hungarian government for its involvement with South Stream, as well as the Paks nuclear plant contract. As absurd as it may seems, but this is not the only US official to publicly rebuke Hungary and tell it on how to behave within the EU.  Previously, it was the turn of Victoria Nuland, the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, back in September.  She lambasted Central Europe leaders, (and also taking a side swipe at  the Hungary government in particular) by saying “"How can you sleep under your NATO Article 5 blanket at night while pushing ‘illiberal democracy' by day; whipping up nationalism; restricting free press; or demonizing civil society?" Nb4

It is now very clear that the US administration is intensely hostile to the South Stream, only because of the source of the gas, Russia and not the route, since Andre Goodfriend said on the 24^th of October: "We disagree with that approach, because we think that diversifying sources is what's important,” taking issue with the fact that Hungary is not trying hard enough to diversify its gas sources.  Two days previously, the Hungarian Parliament proposed new legislation on South Stream without the need for the EU’s oversight over this matter. Nb5

Washington and Brussels are furious about the Hungarian government’s moves concerning Russian natural gas imports. Hungary stopped the reverse gas flow to Ukraine, supposedly for “technical reasons”, which left Kiev literally out in the cold, and extremely unhappy.  This happened just a few days after Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller met Hungarian PM Orbán on 22 September in Budapest. No doubt both these events were viewed dimly by both the EU and the US. Nb6

“The presumption that we will fall into the arms of the Russian bear is pure fear-mongering. We are NATO and EU members,” Victor Orban, July 2014

Hungary is in both the EU and in NATO, has committed some troops to the NATO Readiness Action Plan (RAP) in Eastern Europe, and is also upgrading the Papa airbase as a NATO base.  Additionally; there was a controversy that rumbled on in Budapest regarding the sale of T 72 tanks to Ukraine, via the Czech Republic.

Yet, the EU/ USA Mainstream Media Network (MSN) have been spinning their stories on Hungary and Victor Orban ever since he first raised objections to the EU sanctions back in March. 

Orban is quoted by the Huffington Times article, (20/07/14), as being Putin’s “nationalist right wing allies in neighboring Hungary.” The article continues to state that “Orbán has cultivated ties to none other than Vladimir Putin who already seeks effective partition of Ukraine.”  [Ed’s Note: Could this be the same partition that Sikorski, the ex-Polish Foreign Minister mentioned but then later retracted as being untrue?]. Nb7

First came the veiled threats from the US Administration. Victoria Nuland said on  2^nd of October:  “I ask the same of those who shield crooked officials from prosecution; bypass parliament when convenient; or cut dirty deals that increase their countries’ dependence on one source of energy despite their stated policy of diversification.” Two weeks later, the US administration in mid-October signaled their displeasure by slapping a travel ban on 6 Hungarians officials, citing “Proclamation 7750” on corruption ‘issues’.  Although a Reuters article on the subject deftly turned this reason on its head and gave the reason as being “as a warning to Budapest to reverse policies that threatened to undermine democratic values.”

Reportedly, Hungary is the only NATO ally to have been affected by such an US travel ban. The Hungarian government was left perplexed and considers the travel bans as groundless until the reasons are revealed by Washington.  Nb8 Nevertheless, it has caused a stir in Budapest, which was quickly followed up the comments of the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires André Goodfriend, who said that “Hungary should move from guessing who has been banned from entering the United States towards trying to find ways to co-operate with the U.S. in combating corruption.”

EU angle

The EU Norwegian minister, Vidar Helgesen,  allegedly said, “When the Hungarian government is challenging these values it challenges the EU itself.” The EU, who are said to be losing patience too and in October, there were glimpses of this annoyance. The EU Hungarian political scene was muddied when EU MEPs blocked the Hungarian nominee, Tibor Navracsics, for the post of Commissioner of education, culture, youth and citizenship. This was because of Navracsis' doubious record on supporting a "civil society" in Hungary.

The Trans-Carpathian dimension

Victor Orban visited Transcarpathia at the end of September, located in western Ukraine, home to about 162,000 Hungarians.  He gave a speech about Ukrainian relations: “We need a strong neighbor. We hope that there will be peace in your country. We want an open dialogue and are willing to cooperate and support. Our doors are always open for you, we will help to solve the problems that you announce". Yet this provoked a negative response from the US official, André Goodfriend, as he said that Hungary "to understand the sensitivities on the ethnic nationalism question."   This was an oblique reference to Hungary’s interests in Transcarpathia, amongst other regions.

A lot of the Trans Carpathian Hungarians voted for Viktor Yanukovich in the 2010 Ukrainian elections, which doesn’t sit well with the likes of the uber-Ukrainian nationalist groups ‘Svoboda’ or ‘Pravy Sektor’, who unsurprisingly took over some public buildings in the region and proceeded to trash them “Maidan square style”.  The serious threat of Ukrainian nationalism is of extreme concern to the Hungarian minority and consequently they are fearful for their future.

NGOs raided

At the beginning of September, the Hungarian authorities made moves against a number of foreign-back “civil society” NGOs based in Hungary, over alleged financial mismanagement. This triggered a wave of criticism including the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union (HCLU) who released a press statement with the following heading: “The EU Cannot Remain Silent About the Putinization of Hungary Any Longer”. Nb9

Two NGOs were specifically targeted, Ökotárs and Demnet, both connected to Norway NGO Grant, thereby provoking a diplomatic spate with the Norwegian government. Interestingly, Okotars is also the civil society implementing partner in Hungary of the U.S. Agency for International Development, (USAID). A week later, Hungary got a special mention in a speech made by President Obama back in September, where he said: “From Hungary to Egypt, endless regulations and overt intimidation increasingly target civil society.” The only EU and NATO country to be mentioned, along with the likes of Russia, China, Venezuela, Cuba and Burma.

The last word from the US

“If that trend continues it may reach a level where the United States can no longer cooperate with Hungary as an ally.” Statement made by André Goodfriend.

The precedent has been recently set in Ukraine, where a democratically elected leader was violently overthrown, simply because he did not fit into the “international community’s democratic values”, by not respecting the wishes of the Maidan “civil society” groups and NGOs in February 2014. Indeed, the Euro-Atlantic bloc, along with the rest of the so called “international community” were so desperate to  bring in Ukraine into their sphere of influence, that they allied themselves with zealot anti-Russian ultra-nationalists and fascists Ukrainian groups. 

Internet Tax Protests

Not long ago, the Hungarian government proposed a new law on taxing the use of the internet, which has resulted in massive protests in Budapest on Sunday. The protest rally organizers of '100,000 against the Internet tax' have called the proposed law “anti-democratic” and also  described the proposals as the move  “… follows a wave of alarming anti-democratic measures by Orban that is pushing Hungary even further adrift from Europe.”

Moreover, protestors have attacked the offices of Orban’s Fidesz ruling party. All of the Western press has heaped criticism on Orban and his government.  Is this the start of a new Maidan in Budapest? 

It has come to my attention that one of the participants in Sunday's event is none other than Andre Goodfriend; was he merely an observer or was there more to his attendance. It seems that on face value, the US administration's signal is crystal  clear. Another noteworthy attendee was the ex Budapest mayor, Budapest Gabor Demszky from the SZDSZ party.  András Bencsik,
chief editor of the newspaper Demokrata, reacted to the event by comparing the rally to Ukraine: “football hooligans and liberals, just like in the case of the Kiyv Maidan”.Nb10

Interesting to see the nature of crowds in Budapest. Internet tax march seemed large & orderly w/good police support pic.twitter.com/xd6GcNVOr8
— M. Andre Goodfriend (@GoodfriendMA) 26 Octobre 2014

Another Twitter message of support came from none other than the EU  Vice-President of the European Commission Neelie Kroes:

The first shots of an US - Hungarian diplomatic fallout have already rung out in October.  Could the internet tax protest be the catalyst for what ultimately could be a US sponsored regime change, right in the heart of the EU and NATO hegemony?



 References and Notes:

• Nb1a  http://www.kormany.hu/en/the-prime-minister/the-prime-minister-s-speeches/prime-minister-viktor-orban-s-speech-at-the-25th-balvanyos-summer-free-university-and-student-camp
  “    "This, Ladies and Gentlemen, is the explanation for the fact that the most popular topic in thinking today is trying to understand how systems that are not Western, not liberal, not liberal democracies and perhaps not even democracies, can nevertheless make their nations successful. The stars of the international analysts today are Singapore, China, India, Russia and Turkey.”
  
  
  1b -
  http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/10/17/at_the_back_of_the_class_hungary_democracy_orban

http://hungary.usembassy.gov/pr_10182014.html

  

Nb 4  http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2014/oct/232444.htm

Nb 5 -
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/2014/10/27/06-15-34am/hungary_prepares_bypass_eu_ban_south_stream_pipeline_construction

http://www.portfolio.hu/en/economy/hungary_set_to_bypass_eu_over_south_stream_with_law_amendment.28562.html 

Nb 6 -  Interestingly, Hungarian officials cited that additional gas supplies were being stored in preparation for winter consumption, as well as for neighboring states to buy. Several days after this was announced, Dusan Bajatovic, the chief executive of Serbia's Srbijagas stated that it was looking to secure supplies from Hungary. Moreover, at that time, gas flow to Serbia was down by 20 percent. Interesting turn of events.

 Nb 7a -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nikolas-kozloff/ukraine-crisis-hands-off_b_5358893.html

7b  “He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine. ... This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow,” Sikorski was quoted as saying in a 19 October interview with Politico magazine.

Nb8-

http://www.euronews.com/newswires/2756982-us-diplomat-criticises-pm-orbans-russia-policies/

http://rt.com/news/199076-us-diplomat-orban-russia/

Nb 9a

http://tasz.hu/en/node/4300

9b 

http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/press/news/2014/raid_eea.html?id=767076

Nb 10 - a https://www.facebook.com/Ne.legyen.Internetado

 https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.888645471160555.1073741847.407232962635144&type=1