Blog The mad Stockholm submarine - story or saga? (eng)

The mad Stockholm submarine - story or saga?

(Media Fishing in paranoid water- Russian baiting season)Give me a ping, Vasili. One ping only, please. The Hunt for Red October, 1990

UPDATE APRIL 2015

The "Russian sub" bubble has burst.     It turns out that the frantic search for the "fictive" sub was all along  a "workboat".

 http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russian-submarine-sighted-near-stockholm-was-civilian-boat-claims-swedish-admiral-1496146


 
"The analysis has shown that the photograph taken in Stockholm's inner archipelago was of a smaller boat," Grenstad, told Dagens Nyheter newspaper.

The admiral, who was the deputy chief of the large-scale search operations launched after the sighting, identified the vessel as a 10.5m long, white plastic boat named "Time Bandit".

 Update 14th Nov
http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268781/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=Wraf0Mwz

http://www.forsvarsmakten.se/en/news/2014/11/confirmed-submarine-in-the-stockholm-archipelago/

The Swedish Prime Minister, Stefan Lofven, said "clear evidence" that a small submarine did illegally enter Swedish waters last month.


" A second observation was made by a naval corvette. Following strong indications on its sensors, a closer examination of the area was conducted and recently made traces were found on the bottom."

http://www.forsvarsmakten.se/siteassets/6-aktuellt/nyheter/2014/bildspel-fran-pressmote-141114.pdf

Update 6th Nov

The Swedish authorities still have the jitters over "security" in the region, so have conducted military exercises on Friday. At least this time, they don't seem to be hunting for invisible subs.

 https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/530396106090622976/photo/1

Update 5th Nov 
A Dutch submarine was in Sweden!
 http://vlt.se/nyheter/vasteras/1.2684084--jag-sag-en-ubat-200-meter-ut-i-vattnet-

and a Swedish was also in the area; http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268781/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=Wraf0Mwz

Unknown object in Swedish waters. Estonian cartoon by Urmas Nemvalts, published by Postimees

 
Last week, the Swedish armed forces were looking for some kind of foreign submarine for 8 days, with an approximate cost of 20 environ 20 million SEK, ($2.8m).  The hunt was finally called off on the 24th of October, so the origin & nationality of the "underwater foreign activity" remains undiscovered.

In a frenzied hunt reminiscent of the "Cold War days", the Swedes deployed a number of warships, patrol boats, minehunters, helicopters & planes, and around 200 personnel to locate the intruder, but it seems to no avail. Two locations, (as indicated in a press briefing), were searched, one within the Stockholm archipelago and another off the coast in the Baltic Sea.

It all started with information released to the Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet, citing unidentified sources, about the interception of a distress message, supposedly sent out on a Russian distress frequency.  So the first story about a damaged Russian submarine was quickly picked by the international press & flashed across the world.  Then there were about 5 "credible" sightings of suspicious marine activity from members of the public, including a grainy photo. Practically right from the start, the Swedish press jumped to the reckless conclusion that the intruder was a Russian submarine, without the slightest shred of any credible sources or evidence of its flag whatsoever to back this up. The international media circus also kicked in, adding their own flourishes to the ever increasing chorus of "it's a Russian sub" headlines.

Within a couple of days, the international media narrative went from a search for a "foreign underwater operation" to a dramatic 007 style hunt for a Russian mini-submarine. "A Russian miniature submarine is being pursued by the miniature Swedish navy". The Guardian 20/10/14. To add to the mystery, the Swedes then also went looking for a 'man in black', photographed on a beach, not surprisingly, the farcical media chorus line for this was "a Russian spy". The story was swiftly developing according to the Monty Pythonesque application of the principles of logic. Allegedly, the 'spy' turned out to be a local pensioner called Ove sea fishing.

Moscow denied that it was one of their naval vessels and suggested that it could have been a Dutch NATO sub instead, the Bruinvis.  The Dutch Ministry of Defence in turn vigorously denied that this was the case, in spite of the fact that it was in Tallin, a Baltic port during this period.  But on Sunday, the media circus didn't stop to ask any further questions, but rather carried on and speculated on the reportedly bizarre activities of a commercial ship, the NS Concord, as being somehow connected to the "Russian sub". More unsubstantiated media claims were made about the NS Concord, which was supposed to have some connections to Vladimir Putin himself. Once again, the media continued to speculate on the NS Concord, even after these media claims, could not be confirmed by the Swedish Coast Guard since its spokesman Anders Nordin said that; "NS Concord's movements were consistent with the normal movements of a crude oil tanker.” Here is a twitter example of the media claims that the tanker's movements were abnormal.

1) #Russia submarine 2) tanker that's presumably searching 3) tanker's route last 7d @andersostlund @forest_brother pic.twitter.com/D92QN24CCx
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) 19 Octobre 2014

 Laconically, the Russian Ministry of Defence spokesman described the Swedish operations as a "tragicomedy" and was looking forward to "the culmination of this exciting operation" to find a Russian submarine. Furthermore, it was quite amazing to find out that your average hack took this opportunity to instantly become some kind of Russian naval submarine expert as well as a shipping expert.

While the Swedish military didn't actually officially give any details on the nationality of the intruder, it didn't deter the international press in producing tonnes of anti-Russian propaganda laced with cold war rhetoric. The Swedish military spokesman, Rear-Admiral, Anders Grenstad said "I don't want to comment on what Russia says. I have not pointed fingers at any nation."   He equally dismissed the original press reports of a distress signal:  "The Armed Forces has no information about distress calls, or that any emergency frequency has been used."

Rear Adm. Anders Grenstad, stated that "Our assessment is that in the inner archipelago there was a plausible foreign underwater operation." Then he talked about "strange underwater activity".  As the search progressed, it was becoming evident that the Swedish military were not sure at all as to the type of craft it was, as Rear Adm. Grenstad said:

“It could be a submarine, or a smaller submarine,” said Grenstad. “It could be divers using some form of moped-like underwater vehicle and it could be divers that don’t have any business on our territory. This does not belong to us. It is a foreign vessel and we have no indications that there would be any civilians involved in underwater activity.”

Later on in the week, the search morphed into a hunt as the Swedish military stated that it could use weapons to force the submarine to the surface. Yet the original story was of a submarine in distress. Given that Sweden has a network of underwater sensors, it is not surprising that they detected some kind of underwater activity, but how does that relate to the secondary search area 50km from Stockholm, further out in the Baltic Sea?

On 23th October, the Swedish government announced an extra SEK300m each year for the next 5 years on defence spending. Quite by chance, on the next day the "unidentified underwater object", (UUO) search was called off.   Was this entire "submarine hunt" just a pretext in order to justify an increased military budget? Specialised anti-submarine warfare (ASW) helicopters were retired in 2008.

The whole story has the distinctive flavour of a 1980's Cold War incident involving Sweden hunting Soviet and NATO submarines. The latest story so effectively 'seeded' by the press, seemed to play straight into the hands of those wanting Sweden to join NATO. This could also be a very "valid" reason for Sweden to forge a closer alliance with NATO. Moreover, Sweden stated it would suspend military cooperation with Russia. In a recent poll, it was reported that 37% of Swedes said they supported joining Nato while 36% were against. Five months ago a poll showed 28% per cent in favour and 56% against.

There is one certain outcome to this submarine saga, as it has spooked the public and politicians into believing that there is a clear & persistent Russian military threat on their doorsteps. More worryingly, it has resulted in increasing tensions in the Baltic region over perceived Russian aggresiveness. Take for instance this twitter message from Edgars Rinkevics:

Closely following events in the Swedish territorial waters, may become a game changer of the security in the whole Baltic Sea region     - Edgars Rinkevics (@edgarsrinkevics) 19 Octobre 2014

Even Carl Bildt jumped on the "Russian submarine" bandwagon: https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/523736685579079680

  Anders Östlund ‏@andersostlund

Sweden have to increase its military in size and capcity but it also have to join NATO. Standing alone against Russia is not an option.

Some humour

https://twitter.com/Russian_Sub

BREAKING: Sweden sends task force to Graz, Austria to check if their Kunsthaus is in fact a Russian submarine. pic.twitter.com/4ja2oto5RD    - Varyagi (@varyagi) 22 Octobre 2014

Warning. KGB put fake submarines everywhere to confuse space intelligence from #Sweden. Be careful! #svpol pic.twitter.com/3MM269XhRa     - Sergei Kostigoff (@kostigoff) 22 Octobre 2014
Notes

Typical example of euro-Atlantic MSN slant on the events: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/20/guardian-view-on-sweden-defence-nato-inevitable

Sources
 

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/swedish-defense-is-nato-inevitable
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2799091/sweden-steps-search-crippled-russian-submarine-making-mayday-distress-call-coast.html
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/ob-redo-att-tvinga-upp-ubat-med-vapenmakt/
 http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/for-first-time-more-swedes-favor-joining-nato-than-against

Blog - The sad story of NATO and the international institutions

The sad story of NATO and the international institutions

“you are our vassals or our enemies.”

All of the systems of global collective security, especially the UN, now lie in ruins, except for paradoxically NATO. There are no longer any international security guarantees at all and it is getting worse.  With the surreal rise in NATO’s reach, scope and power just in the last decade, it also comes at a time when the UN is rapidly losing any credibility on the international scene.  There were once a time when multipolar methods were used, whether it was a succession of shuttle flights of UN envoys or the deployment of UN Peacekeepers in strife-torn places. Unipolar methods such as NATO’s intervention in Libya or that of the US in Iraq are now the norm. In most cases, the UN structure has been sidestepped or bullied. As Vladimir Putin said at the Valdai Discussion Club: “this system’s ‘founding fathers’ had respect for each other, did not try to put the squeeze on others, but attempted to reach agreements.” But now it has been thrown into disarray particularly by the US.

The balance of power has shifted mostly into NATO’s hands, which is reshaping the world into its own US made, NATO endorsed format. This is not based on negotiations, legal rulings, agreements but principally on dominance.  The US, along with a group of allied countries, ("Euro-Atlantic Bloc"),  have gone as far as re-branding themselves as the “international community”, of which NATO is a cornerstone. Article 5 of NATO is quoted like a mantra, but the original context for it has lost complete meaning since the demise of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact. But the NATO show of “collective security” has to go on. 

Just this week, NATO reported on “unusual”Russian military jets & bombers over “Europe" with 19 Russian military aircraft ‘intercepted’, by NATO in one day alone. Of course, the press exploited this  & went once more into panic mode. Many of the press failed to mention that the intercepts took place in international airspace, no cause for alarm since this also was fairly routine even in the Cold War days. Before that, the media circus was about a “Russian submarine” lurking in Swedish waters, and next week, who knows what it will be about.  Everyone is looking around & finding a scary Russian tree, forgetting the equally intimidating forest that they are in.  More Cold War rhetoric is added  weekly to scare the public by both NATO sources & the press.

In fact most of the NATO inspired media frenzy can be best seen as a smokescreen. It is in NATO’s genes to play fast & loose with warnings & briefings on threats from the ‘east’ & ‘south’. The stuff that they never mention is the nasty legacy that NATO leaves behind. NATO has intervened, under the guise of so called “humanitarian bombing”, in places such as Yugoslavia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Libya & now to a certain & less visibly in Ukraine. It has left a trail of death, destruction, bouts of lawlessness & human rights abuses in all of these places.   

 Take for example the interview with  Patrick Armstrong, former political counselor at the Canadian Embassy in Moscow:

“Mr. Kerry, a year ago you were telling us that you were absolutely certain that the Syrian government was using chemical weapons and that we had go bomb it. Today you are now telling us that we should go bomb the people that last year we would have been supporting. Please explain, discuss.” We all saw the photos of the militia cavorting in the US embassy swimming-pool in Tripoli. “Was armed NATO’s intervention in Libya a good idea or bad idea? Discuss.” A month ago we learned that the Kosovo Liberation Army that we supported -indeed we gave the entire country to it 15 years ago - was in fact a pretty nasty, criminal organization. Discuss."

Journalists in the pay of the "Euro-Atlantic Bloc" masters won’t even try to dig deeper into NATO’s legacy, in fact they often willingly take liberties with facts and ruthlessly trim to fit the current "Euro-Atlantic Bloc" ideological bias. Russia wants to look after its own interests, but according to NATO , it is up to no good and it's on it doorstep.  The reality is that NATO is in fact on Russia's doorstep; this is a blindspot for NATO leaders and unfortunately Russia serves as today’s EU bogeyman too. 


Notes:

 One noteworthy organisation that has effectively replaced UN peacekeeping missions, with mostly "ceasfire & disputes" monitoring is the OCSE. Recently, Lamberto Zannier, the OSCE’s secretary-general, talked about the conflict in Ukraine: “We are a civilian mission with a task that is increasingly resembling a peacekeeping action, and operating in an environment where there is constant exchange of fire.”


Links

http://valdaiclub.com/valdai_club/73300.html

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/world/two-days-of-russian-aircraft-intercepts/1422/

See also:

‘Russian tanks’ NATO ‘s soapbox: http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/11/blog-tanks-russians-ukraine-image.html

Pentagon press conference video: http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/11/dialogue-de-sourds-entre-letat-major-us.html

“Russian planes & ship” NATO’s anguished wails of discontent: http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/11/blog-blowing-story-out-of-water-russian.html

Stockholm’s sub syndrome: http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/10/blog-mad-stockholm-submarine-story-or.html

Blog: blowing the story out of the water Russian incursions (eng)

First came the Swedish imaginary "Russian sub"  signal, followed some frantic hunt for an "foreign underwater intruder". The Swedish officials were at pains not to give out a nationality, but that it didn't stop the media from putting their own spin on the 'events'. In spite of this the local & international press hurriedly jumped to the conclusion that it was Russian, (somehow without the slightest shred of evidence or source).

Then came the media reports of multiple Russian military air sorties over Europe & the Black Sea, described by NATO as "provocative". The NATO air intercepts took place in international airspace, something that a lot of the press failed to mention.

At the same time, some of the UK press had a hard time spotting the subtle difference in nationality & make of an Antonov plane that got escorted by fighter jets over London. Was it a Russian plane? No it turned out to be Latvian plane. Finally the make of the plane was identified as being Ukrainian & not Russian.

Now we move onto the non-story of a Russian oceanographic ship:

From AFP:  The Portugese Navy escorted a Russian oceanographic ship out of its waters Wednesday in response to the latest in a series of territorial incursions by a Russian vessel or plane.

Waters?  No in fact it took place in the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone, (EEZ).

Portugal identified the ship in the section of sea it has exclusive resource rights over and then guided the vessel back into international waters, Portugal's Defence Minister Jose Pedro Aguiar-Branco told Portugese press agency LUSA.

An EEZ is not Territorial Waters!  In addition to AFP, the BBC picked up the non-story in & cobbled up a series of paragraphs on Russia & the events on Ukraine,  to make it look like that it is all somehow connected up. The BBC revealed a little detail that AFP completely missed out:

 The Russian ship was in international waters, more than 12 nautical miles (22km) from the coast.

The only snag that I see with this sentence, it doesn't actually give the location or distance of the Russian ship, since it instead unhelpfully refers to 12nm limit for territorial waters.  The whole thing has been distorted since an EEZ  only gives a country a "sovereign right"  to below the surface of the sea. The surface is in INTERNATIONAL WATERS. 

International airspace or waters, just a minor detail I suppose for the press. Information that might blow the story & associated histrionics out of the water.


The Russian ship appears to be the RV Professor Logachev,  which had in some circles been supposedly connected to the Swedish submarine story.  The AIS feed showed that the vessel was trailed by a Dutch warship when it was in the Baltic.  https://twitter.com/AirForceFreak74/status/523845233990443009/photo/1.   The vessel is listed as being en route to Las Palmas, so taking the shipping lane off Portugal would have made sense.  But it wasn't made welcome by the Portuguese Navy. 

Background info on the RV Professor Logachev:

http://www.soundocean.com/cgge/rv-professor-logachev

Wikipedia

As can be seen in the above still from the MARINE AIS, the Russian ship is 'escorted' & tailed
 by no less than 3 Dutch NATO warships in the Baltic.

 Sources:

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/portugal-escorts-russian-ship-from-its-waters

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29919036

See also:

‘Russian tanks’ NATO ‘s soapbox: http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/11/blog-tanks-russians-ukraine-image.html

Pentagon press conference video: http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/11/dialogue-de-sourds-entre-letat-major-us.html

Stockholm’s sub syndrome: http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/10/blog-mad-stockholm-submarine-story-or.html

The Earth: Shifting away from UN global security to being NATO’s mandate: http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2014/10/blog-sad-story-of-nato-and.html