Blog Post: Turkish head spinning antics

Head spinning madness on the Turkish frontier

Update on Turkey’s intransigence and duplicitous understanding of sovereignty over this weekend: this time, Turkish troops have gone into Northern Iraq.


“Turkey will have a permanent military base in the Bashiqa region of Mosul as the Turkish forces in the region training the Peshmerga forces have been reinforced, Hürriyet reported.
The deal regarding the base was signed between Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani and Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu, during the latter’s visit to northern Iraq on Nov. 4.”
 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-military-to-have-a-base-in-iraqs-mosul.aspx?pageID=238&nID=92113&NewsCatID=352

Although it appears that the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi isn’t in the loop on this deployment:“We did not ask any country to send foreign ground troops, and we will treat any sent as a hostile act.”  The Iraqi authorities called on Turkey to withdraw immediately from Iraqi territory:

https://twitter.com/IraqiPMO/status/672506598141612033
https://twitter.com/IraqiPMO/status/672911663381786624

Back to the Hurriyet Daily News article:

“For more than two years, Turkey has had a group of soldiers in Bashiqa, located 32 kilometers north of Mosul, which is under Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) control. The soldiers have been training the Peshmerga forces and other anti-ISIL groups.”

In other reports, the Turkish are said to be training a Sunni volunteer group called Hashd al-Wataniya.  A figure of 2200 Turkish troops, along with tanks have been quoted in the media. The Fars news agency also reports that Turkey is building an airfield in Northen Irak, named 'Bamerne', in Dahuk.

Judging by the flurry of diplomatic  activity,  clearly Baghdad didn’t approve the operation in the first place . It was just signed by the KRG President Massoud Barzani, who just happens to be in bed with the Turkish elites, & actively participating in the Kurdish oil trade & smuggling routes into southern Turkey.  So are the Turkish troops there covering Barzani’s back?

But what the heck is going on here? There seems to more to it than at first glance.  There is this snippet of news on the RT website:

"While Russia is a major supplier of oil and gas for Turkey, Ankara may find another seller, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a televised speech. Turkey seeks to secure deliveries from Qatar and Azerbaijan amid escalated tensions with Russia over its downing of a Russian warplane over Syria. Russia slapped economic sanctions against Turkey in retaliation, but continues to supply fuel according to existing contracts with Turkey.”

Notice the words: “Turkey seeks to secure deliveries from Qatar…”  Join this up with Erdogan's  shot across Russia’s bow back in October,  he said “Turkey may replace Russia as fuel supplier".  Add in the potential gas pipeline project, which reveals an extra layer in Turkey's latest activities:

“- A pipeline that will start from Qatar and reach the European Union through Iraq and Turkey will truly ensure  the diversification of sources and routes and thus contribute to the supply security.”

ORSAM Report No: 23, January 2011 IS THE QATAR-IRAQ-TURKEY-EUROPE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE PROJECT FEASIBLE?

http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/enUploads/Article/Files/2011110_orsam.katar.eng.pdf

Predictably it is linked to the ongoing spat with Russia that’s deepening by the week.  Russia is probably wondering what to do, if it is possible to help in the region.   Assistance may be potentially provided to the Marxist Kurdistan Workers' Party, (PKK), who are competing for power currently held by the KRG. This would be the equivalent of stepping into quicksand, since it could possibly trigger a serious armed struggle, which would only benefit ISIS and Turkey. It is truly complex. The PKK is loathed by the Turkish government and in the summer it attacked the vital pipeline that runs from Iraq to Ceyhan, causing some major financial losses to both the Turks & KRG.

Predictably there is another twist to this tale: oil extraction.  It is very convenient for the Turkish military group in Northern Iraq to be located right within the oil triangle.  In 2012, Turkey joined in with the KRG to sign an agreement on oil exploratory work. Even Exxon did some preliminary seismic work in the area then, including the Bashiqa area.  This is what Erdogan had to say about the partnership a year later: "Our oil company already has an agreement with Exxon Mobil in place ... This is a step with the KRG on exploration work,"

http://archive.pipelineme.com/news/regional-news/2012/10/exxon-defies-baghdad-to-start-work-with-krg/

 
So effectively, Turkey had said to Baghdad, "move over,here in the north, we'll take charge from now on".  Surprisingly, this fits in with the date of the first deployment of Turkish in Northern Irak.

To recap on the present state of madness: head chopping brutal ISIS steal oil from Damascus & Baghdad’s territory; sell it off through middlemen that include some Kurds, who then sell it to Turkey.   The Kurds & the Turks are supposedly fighting ISIS.  The Western media image of the valiant Kurdish fighter has been sorely abused by the political elites running their off-the-books oil business with the enemy.  It is very convoluted & extremely messy.

Another intriguing gem, is the fact that the Turkish elites have regularly brandished  neo-Ottoman rhetoric.  It is no secret that the Turkish government would like to get back places such as Aleppo and Mosul. Straight from the horse’s mouth:

“The border is wrong. The Mosul Province was within the Ottoman Empire's territory. Had that place been a part of Turkey, none of the problems we are confronted with at the present time would have existed.” 

President Demirel in 1995

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151205/1031291119/iraq-turkey-kurds-mosul.html
http://journal-neo.org/2015/07/29/the-deadly-turkish-deception/

Giora Eiland in an Guardian article mentioned meeting a senior Turkish official some years ago and  the official said , “but do not make the mistake of thinking that the borders that were dictated to us at the end of the first world war by the victorious countries – mainly the UK and France – are acceptable to us. Turkey will find a way to return to its natural borders in the south – the line between Mosul in Iraq and Homs in Syria. That is our natural aspiration and it is justified because of the large Turkmen presence in that region.”

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/01/russia-fighting-isis-moscow-turkey

Turkmen did you say?  Wouldn't that be those not so nice chappies that shot up a parachuting Russian pilot?  Turkey 

Other linked information on Turkey:

http://lepontduhadu.blogspot.fr/2015/12/blog-turkey-eu-and-european-values.html


Is your head spinning yet?
 

Blog repost: Syria looting and Turkish connections

Prelude

This week's revelations made by Moscow concerning the illegal oil trade between Turkey and the Islamic State overshadows another shady aspect of the Syrian conflict, namely pillage of industrial machinery and parts on a massive scale in the Aleppo region.
 

More information on the Turkish connection with the military style pillaging & asset-stripping of Syria:

http://journal-neo.org/2015/08/24/erdogan-s-dirty-dangerous-isis-games/

“According to French geopolitical analyst, Thierry Meyssan, Recep Erdoğan “organised the pillage of Syria, dismantled all the factories in Aleppo, the economic capital, and stole the machine-tools.”

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/08/turkey-syria-sued-for-looting-aleppo-industry.html

“Half of the non-operational facilities were dismantled and taken to Turkey. We don’t know who plundered it, but Turkey is the responsible party. This is why the Aleppo Chamber of Industry and Commerce is taking the issue to international courts."

The article contains a video of the looted machinery: http://off-guardian.org/2015/10/17/video-free-syrian-army-liberated-over-1000-aleppo-factories-transferred-them-to-turkey/


The article briefly mentions the issue of electricity and water supplies in Aleppo.  It should be noted that the US previously bombed an Aleppo power station, and more recently bombed a water pumping station. In the ongoing war of words, where the US often criticises the Russians for not bombing IS, the fact the the US-led air coalition sees fits to bomb civilian infrastructure is telling.  Even UNICEF could not stay quiet over the latest bombing. 

UNICEF calls for end to attacks on civilian infrastructure after air strike cuts water supplies to Aleppo: http://www.unicef.org/media/media_86402.html

“In Syria, the rules of war, including those meant to protect vital civilian infrastructure, continue to be broken on a daily basis.”

"The air-strike which reportedly hit al-Khafseh water treatment plant in the northern city of Aleppo last Thursday is a particularly alarming example.”

 This in the genetic make up of the US & NATO air forces since it is not new,  Iraqi, Libya and Serbian were heavily bombed in order to create unsafe and unhygienic conditions.  

****************************************************************************************************

L’Orient le Jour Interview
Translated from the French

My factory was the IS HQ in Aleppo

Farès el-Chehabi, businessman from Aleppo & Sunni, the president of the Chamber of commerce and industry of Syria, relates the devastation caused by four years of war on his city and its surroundings. Since September 2011, he is registered on the list of individuals sanctioned by the European Union, accused of providing economic support to the regime.

What were the consequences of the war on the industrial area of Aleppo ?

Aleppo was the economic capital of Syria. We had over 80 000 factories. More than any city in the Middle East. In 2011, as early as the second month of the war, the destruction and looting began. From the first months, the rebels distributed leaflets demanding the closure of our businesses; otherwise they would be burned down. They sent these threats to all the shops and businesses. Immediately, the people became very afraid. About twenty of my friends, manufacturers, members of the Chamber of commerce, were murdered because they refused to close down their factories. In 2011, the rebels reduced to ashes more than 100 factories.

One of my factories was in Sheikh Najjar, the largest industrial area. The rebels seized in 2011. I was told that it didn’t belong to me anymore and that I didn't have the right to claim it back under threat of reprisals. My factory, which produced olive oil, I thought was in the hands of the Syrian Free Army  (FSA), was in fact the headquarters of the Islamic State (IS). Once retaken back in July 2014, I noted the damage. The walls were painted with the IS flag, there were jihadists clothing, their leaflets…  I noticed that there were almost 500 children in the area who had been deprived of education for two years. So I decided to turn this factory into a free school.

You have accused the Turkish government of being behind the looting of the factories in Aleppo...

Yes. And I have serious proof. I have filed two complaints against the Turkish government, with the courts of Strasbourg and The Hague. I have gathered solid evidence, videos, confessions and witnesses. Many manufacturers called me in a panic telling me that the rebels were in their factory and that there were Turkish experts with them. The armed men do not know the difference between the different production lines of a factory. They do not know how to disassemble the machines without damaging them. This is why the Turkish experts were present, to choose their loot and send it to Gaziantep, Adana... I've received more than 5,000 manufacturers'’ complaints, victims of theft. The loot went to Turkey with the complicity of the Turkish police. It is impossible to move the plant equipment so easily. Some of the machines are 20, 30 meters long. They used trucks, moved over the border crossings, not through olive tree fields. It is organized smuggling. They have gutted the industrial areas of Aleppo. It is a field of ruins.

Today, how is Aleppo organizing its survival?

Over the past nine months, we no longer have the Internet. Since the road Hama-Aleppo has been liberated, everyday life products arrive easily. The water is controlled by al-Nusra (a branch of the Syrian el-Qaeda). The UN declared it a terrorist organization in 2014. The National Syrian Coalition tries to make al-Nusra acceptable, encouraging them to cut theirs ties with el-Qaeda, so that they can join the moderate forces. The Front controls much of the electricity. And the large power plant is under IS control. So we have very, very little electricity in Aleppo. The government negotiates with them. "The terrorists" tell us : "We give  Aleppo 5 % of the electricity and  take the rest. "Which is the equivalent to 5 megawatts for 3 million people. This is not negotiation; it is blackmail for electricity as water (supply). We are waiting for the retaking of the largest power station near to the Kweires airport. Nobody can attack it, because there is a risk of contamination, radiation... We have another power station in Zorba, which should be freed in the next few days.

Did the people of Aleppo living in the government controlled area fear that the regime was going to let them fall?

A lot of people were frustrated in the beginning and furious too, as they felt abandoned. We were not able to defend ourselves against the rebels. We were faced with two choices:  either destroy what remains of Aleppo ourselves and fight, or lay siege to it without destroying the city. And this is the second option that is in progress.

People sell off their old Aleppo houses just to leave. And the most targeted are the Christians and Armenians. Only 10 000 Armenians remain in Aleppo, while they were more than 200 000 before the war. I've visited the patriarchs and priests of all the communities, and all say the same speech: those who attack them are Islamists who want to force them to leave the country. But the Islamists seem to forget that the Christian community in Aleppo is not a visitor. They are the original inhabitants of the city. They were there before the Muslims. And there is hope that one day, Christians will come back.

You criticize the rebels but at the same time, the Syrian government buys the oil from IS...

Already, this oil is not IS’s. It belongs to the Syrians. Therefore, if a group controls my production of wheat, cotton or oil, it is my job to free my factory or to buy the production by all means possible. It belongs to me. Therefore, it is hypocritical to point the finger at the Syrian government's efforts that buys up the oil from IS to give it to its citizens. And furthermore the regime bombs some oil fields.

What do you think of the upcoming elections, decided on in Vienna, which will take place in 18 months ?

We decide who should govern through free elections. We have no problem if these elections are organized by an international organization as long as it is not corrupt.  If you want a president to leave, organize elections. But we do not accept the rebel groups as Jaesh al-islam or others.

Let the so called "moderate" groups participate in the elections. If they win, we will be forced to accept it. It is the law of the ballot.  But no one really wants elections and demanding that the president resigns. Because they know that if Bashar al-Assad participates in them, he will win. It will not be a majority, maybe not 90 %, but 45 % would be enough for him to win. And, for the moment, no one on the opposition side can rally as many votes.

Original link:

http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/957522/-mon-usine-etait-le-quartier-general-de-letat-islamique-a-alep-.html

Blog - Russian submarines in the Arctic - the saga continues (eng)

Russian submarines in the Arctic - the saga continues

Hold the front page, it's no longer submarines in Sweden, but this time a case involving a mystery sub in the Arctic. The topic of Russia and its military 'creeping around' is growing legs. When will this media 'non-news' about subs and Russia get kicked into touch? Here is the title of the Daily Telegraph article by Ali Kefford in question: "Mystery submarine sighting gives clue to Russia's Arctic ambitions".

The article starts with "A chance encounter by scientists adrift on an Arctic ice floe has given the first clues to a new Cold War being played out in in the far north, where Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his ambitions to extend Russian influence."

The article relates the story of Norwegian scientists who spotted an unknown submarine on the 16th of October.  The article states that it a submarine that is an "aging nuclear research vessel".  The writer considers the research vessel as "part of President Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to an area rich in oil and gas".

Submarines Arctic patrols

Interesting turn of words from the writer, "chance encounter", as if it is rare as hens' teeth to see surfacing subs in the Arctic. However, if as the article suggests, it is the "Orenburg", then, it was indeed a" chance encounter", since the Russian sub carries out sensitive missions for the Russian Ministry of Defense's Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research (GUGI).   Even so, the reality is that it isn't that rare for submarines to turn up in the Arctic; especially US ones and other NATO subs. In fact, just by trawling through the internet, several videos are online, featuring submarines breaking through the ice" in the polar region on exercise:

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEGW8mQRtLM - "US Navy Submarine Surfaces In The Arctic Ocean", USS Connecticut in March of 2011, along with the USS New Hampshire, taking part in in Ice Exercise 2011 (ICEX-2011)

• or the USS Alexandria near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, March 15, 2007, while on exercise with HMS Tireless, taking part in ICEX 07   - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDlTq53b438

The article continues by giving the long & lat, (89° 17.5' N, 172° 42.9' W) of the location as well stating that "She has been potentially identified as the Delta class boat Orenburg." 

Maybe the Russians just wanted to have a swim alongside their sub or is it the Russian version of the ice bucket challenge, the sea being the bucket!!!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ2oFTuyYck.  The sub in the video is also a Detla class. Another video showing a russian sub in the Arctic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2wOOrs01kE

Ali Kefford finishes his article off by picking up again on his unnamed senior naval source; (once more a case of citing anonymous sources): "There is almost certainly a US submarine there now," said the source. "And if there isn't one there permanently below the Arctic ice cap, the High North will be on a periodic patrol cycle. The point being made by the unnamed senior naval source is the fact that submarines do in fact patrol and go on exercises in the Arctic, including the US.

Sadly it seems to be journalistic de rigeur now not to bother finding named sources of information or to do some meaningful or measured research on Russia & its interests in the Arctic; scaremongering the readers by using Cold War rhetoric is much easier these days. The journalist did not even provide any information whatsoever over the reasons as to why Russia is keenly involved in the Arctic.
 
 Russia & the Arctic

Let me step in where the Daily Telegraph left off.  Basically, there are two aspects to the Russian involvement in the Arctic.  A huge chunk of the Arctic region is in fact within Russia's maritime borders. Ali Kefford in his article has skipped over this fact by simply omitting to state where the 6000 troops are being sent. Some of these troops have already set foot on Kotelny Island, located in the Novosibirsk Archipelago, one of the first military bases being set up in the Arctic.

The international legal framework that sets maritime borders is called the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS outlines a country's Exclusive Economic Zone, (EEZ),  that can be up to 200 nm from the coast. The Coastal State, in this case, Russia, has the right to exploit natural resources lying in the seabed, under the provisions of Article 56(1)(a). This dry piece of information might not seem of interest to an average hack, yet, is a piece of the puzzle, that was completely missed out,  when referring to as "Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to an area rich in oil and gas".

Sea continental shelf research

What Ali Kefford is also  possibly alluding to is the ongoing scramble to claim Arctic territory, beyond current maritime borders, by the US, Canada, Denmark, Russia and Norway. It is said that that the Arctic accounts for 25% of the world's undiscovered oil & gas resources, as well as other mineral resources such as copper. Potential ownership of such resources boils down to outright legal ownership of various areas of the Arctic shelf boundaries.  Here is the devil in the detail, since UNCLOS also deals with the issue of a continental shelf, as a country can in very limited circumstances, extend its right as a State to exploit it beyond the 200 nm EEZ. The Siberian Shelf, which just happens to be the largest continental shelf on Earth, is a likely hotspot for serious oil & gas exploration. It extends out to 1500 kilometers (930 miles) offshore.

Russia has had its eye on extending its national shelf for decades & to this end they have been busily researching the area. The Russians have lately centered their geological research on the Mendeleyev Ridge. The research vessel "Orenburg" also took part in Arktika-2012, an  expedition along the Mendeleyev Ridge. However, any final decision on ownership will be made by the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, (CLCS). How dull that Russia is in fact submitting their claims for territorial claims in line with the well-established remit of UNCLOS.  Russia had its first bid rejected by the CLCS back in 2001 and got told to go and do some research.  It is no secret that Canada along with Denmark have equally researched and prepared their bids for territorial claims in the region.

 Economic resources and ownership

The Daily Telegraph article completely misses the point about Russia, (literally personified by Vladimir Putin), and the connection between its existing de facto territorial jurisdiction with its extensive energy resources.  Given both the size of the Siberian Shelf, as well a very long Arctic coastline, it is clear that Russia wants to have a wide security presence in the region.  






Additionally, Russia has drawn up plans in developing further the Northern Sea shipping route as a commercial sea transport corridor. When ice-free, shipping using the route can cut 7000km off of a journey between Rotterdam & Tokyo, compared with using the Suez Canal.  Consequently, Russia sees the need for enhanced oversight over this strategic sea route. Yet as it stands, there are few reliable installations along the coast that could provide the necessary security and also vital Search & Rescue (SAR) infrastructure.

The military dimension

Given that Russia has already important oil & gas assets in the Arctic already sitting within its EEZ, it would be daft not to provide security for them, particularly in the Yamal, Nenets and Kara Sea regions, all located in the Russian EEZ. Yet this is precisely President Putin has set out to do and is continuing to do so.  Russia has been increasing its military presence in the Arctic for a few years, so nothing really newsworthy about deploying 6000 troops to an "area rich in oil and gas". Did the Telegraph journalist actually research the area in question? He only obliquely hinted at it.  Seriously, it is really a non-issue since all of the Russians troops will be actually on Russian land. Back in 2011, the creation of a special Arctic Forces brigade both in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk was proposed by Moscow, however this was put on hold.  The Arctic has been home to Russian submarines for a while - it is called the Northern Fleet and routinely deploys them in the Arctic.

 Currently, Russia is in the process of reopening a number of Soviet era bases in the Arctic such as Kotelny Island and Tiski on the mainland.  As the Russians are strengthening their military presence in their territorial part of the Arctic, so have Canada & the US ramped up its presence as well. Similarly to the Russians, the US produced in February 2014 a strategy roadmap document covering the Arctic. The US Navy principally deploys submarines in the region, as part of its own power projection. Equally NATO can be seen to be muscling on the Arctic region, through its 2014 Norwegian-led Cold Response exercise. "Our ambition is a clear NATO footprint in the north," said State Secretary Roger Ingebrigtsen for the Norwegian Defense Ministry. So the regional power games are about having a physical presence or footprint.

Russia is a significant and key player in Arctic cooperation, and the ongoing reverberations in response to events in Ukraine are being echoed in the Arctic as well, which might deepen the impact on the Russian Arctic footprint. Russia has a dominant role in security & maritime matters in the region, especially within its own maritime borders. Yet pitifully the Daily Telegraph showed a lack of maturity & common sense by refusing to even acknowledge this.
 
References:
 
"Mystery submarine sighting gives clue to Russia's Arctic ambitions", 28 Oct 2014, accessed 28 October 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11191777/Mystery-submarine-sighting-gives-clue-to-Russias-Arctic-ambitions.html
 
Who Owns the Arctic? A Stocktaking of Territorial Disputes, The Global Journal, December 21, 2011, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://theglobaljournal.net/article/view/439/
 
"Russia's Claim in the Arctic and the Vexing Issue of Ridges in UNCLOS," by Mark Benitah, in the American Society of International Law (Nov. 2007).
 
 "Interview with French expert in geopolitics A. Latsa: "The Arctic has never been so important" Route Magazine, 25/03/2013, accessed 28 oct, 2014, http://routemag.com/2013/03/25/interview-with-french-expert-in-geopolitics-a-latsa-the-arctic-has-never-been-so-important/
 
"The United States Navy Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030".
 
"Russia says no need for NATO in Arctic, expands own military presence", The Barents Observer, 22/10/2014, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://barentsobserver.com/en/security/2014/10/russia-says-no-need-nato-arctic-expands-own-military-presence-22-10
 
Sneak peak at Russia's 'under renovation' Arctic base, RT, 18 September 2014, accessed 28 Oct 2014, http://rt.com/news/188712-arctic-russia-military-base/
 
"Arctic Resources: The fight for the coldest place on Earth heats up," RT, April 15, 2014, accessed 28 Oct, 2014, http://rt.com/news/arctic-reclamation-resources-race-524/.

 


(Cartoon (c) Kevin KAL Kallaugher, The Economist)