Hungary’s Orban under the microscope
Is a US inspired “colour revolution” or so
called “ regime change” going to take place in Hungary?
Apparently, those who constantly throw together new ‘colour
revolutions’ consider themselves ‘brilliant artists’ and simply cannot
stop.
Vladimir Putin, Valdai Club 2014
The turning point
There have
been a number of moves by the US and the EU underfoot, putting Hungary under
the spotlight for its apparent unwillingness to uphold democratic values. Victor Orban has been the Prime Minister of Hungary
3 times and was re-elected again in April 2014 with a majority of just over
44%.
The alarm
bells probably started ringing loudly in the US and the EU when Orban gave a
speech on 26 July 2014, where he stated that “And so in this sense the new state that we are constructing in Hungary
is an illiberal state, a non-liberal state.” He did also mention “similarly to the statements I quoted for you earlier, was also
categorised as blasphemy by the liberal world. We had to state that a
democracy does not necessarily have to be liberal. Just because a state is not
liberal, it can still be a democracy.” He also quoted as “The stars of the international analysts
today are Singapore, China, India, Russia and Turkey.” Nb1
Orban’s speech focuses on the alterative
systems to the US led hegemony on so called democratic values. The EU
minister of Norway, Vidar Helgesen recently stated in a twitter that “Hungary
is failing the democracy test -- and the international community finally
seems to be taking action”. Nb2
The US angle
It has
become noticeable that the US administration lately is getting more and hotter
under their collar with regards to Victor Orban. Why is this so? The answer is principally is because of his
public recalcitrance towards EU sanctions against Russia. Orban stated back in
August that the EU sanctions were like ““shooting
oneself in the foot.” Some possible context to why he said this:
- Around 80% of Hungary’s natural gas
comes from Russia, (via Ukraine);
- 2.55 billion euros worth of exports
to Russia in 2013 alone- (exports potentially slashed);
- 10 billion euro contract with Russia
company to upgrade the Paks nuclear plant, (now potentially in jeopardy);
- Heavy involvement with the $40
billion South Stream gas pipeline project, (on hold)
The Hungarian
Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto recently stated that Hungary was losing over
$200,000 every due to the EU sanctions against Russia. Despite this, the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires André
Goodfriend publicly voiced in a news conference last week, the fact that
Hungary “"stand firm with the EU,
with EU sanctions." Nb3 He also criticised
the Hungarian government for its involvement with South Stream, as well as the
Paks nuclear plant contract. As absurd as it may seems, but this is not the only
US official to publicly rebuke Hungary and tell it on how to behave within the
EU. Previously, it was the turn of Victoria
Nuland, the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, back
in September. She lambasted Central
Europe leaders, (and also taking a side swipe at the Hungary government in particular) by
saying “"How can you sleep under
your NATO Article 5 blanket at night while pushing ‘illiberal democracy' by
day; whipping up nationalism; restricting free press; or demonizing civil
society?" Nb4
It is now
very clear that the US administration
is intensely hostile to the South Stream, only because of the source of the gas,
Russia and not the route, since Andre Goodfriend said on the 24th of
October: "We disagree with that
approach, because we think that diversifying sources is what's important,”
taking issue with the fact that Hungary is not trying hard enough to diversify
its gas sources. Two days previously, the
Hungarian Parliament proposed new legislation on South Stream without the need
for the EU’s oversight over this matter. Nb5
Washington
and Brussels are furious about the Hungarian government’s moves concerning
Russian natural gas imports. Hungary stopped the reverse gas flow to Ukraine,
supposedly for “technical reasons”, which left Kiev literally out in the cold, and
extremely unhappy. This happened just a
few days after Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller met Hungarian PM Orbán on 22 September
in Budapest. No doubt both these events were viewed dimly by both the EU and
the US. Nb6
“The presumption that we will fall into the
arms of the Russian bear is pure fear-mongering. We are NATO and EU members,” Victor
Orban, July 2014
Hungary is
in both the EU and in NATO, has committed some troops to the NATO Readiness
Action Plan (RAP) in Eastern Europe, and is also upgrading the Papa airbase as
a NATO base. Additionally; there was a
controversy that rumbled on in Budapest regarding the sale of T 72 tanks to
Ukraine, via the Czech Republic.
Yet, the EU/
USA Mainstream Media Network (MSN) have been spinning their stories on Hungary
and Victor Orban ever since he first raised objections to the EU sanctions back
in March.
Orban is quoted by the Huffington Times
article, (20/07/14), as being Putin’s “nationalist
right wing allies in neighboring Hungary.” The article continues to state
that “Orbán has cultivated ties to none
other than Vladimir Putin who already seeks effective partition of Ukraine.” [Ed’s Note: Could this be the same partition
that Sikorski, the ex-Polish Foreign Minister mentioned but then later
retracted as being untrue?]. Nb7
First came
the veiled threats from the US Administration. Victoria Nuland said on 2nd of October: “I ask
the same of those who shield crooked officials from prosecution; bypass
parliament when convenient; or cut dirty deals that increase their countries’
dependence on one source of energy despite their stated policy of
diversification.” Two weeks later, the US administration in mid-October
signaled their displeasure by slapping a travel ban on 6 Hungarians officials,
citing “Proclamation 7750” on corruption ‘issues’. Although a Reuters article on the subject
deftly turned this reason on its head and gave the reason as being “as a warning to Budapest to reverse policies
that threatened to undermine democratic values.”
Reportedly, Hungary is the
only NATO ally to have been affected by such an US travel ban. The Hungarian government
was left perplexed and considers the travel bans as groundless until the
reasons are revealed by Washington. Nb8 Nevertheless, it has caused a stir in Budapest, which was quickly
followed up the comments of the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires André Goodfriend, who
said that “Hungary should move from guessing who has been banned from entering
the United States towards trying to find ways to co-operate with the U.S. in
combating corruption.”
EU angle
The EU Norwegian
minister, Vidar Helgesen, allegedly
said, “When the Hungarian government is
challenging these values it challenges the EU itself.” The EU, who are said
to be losing patience too and in October, there were glimpses of this annoyance.
The EU Hungarian political scene was muddied when EU MEPs blocked the Hungarian
nominee, Tibor Navracsics, for the post of Commissioner of education, culture,
youth and citizenship. This was because of Navracsis' doubious record on supporting a "civil society" in Hungary.
The Trans-Carpathian dimension
Victor
Orban visited Transcarpathia at the end of September, located in western Ukraine,
home to about 162,000 Hungarians. He
gave a speech about Ukrainian relations: “We
need a strong neighbor. We hope that there will be peace in your country. We
want an open dialogue and are willing to cooperate and support. Our doors are
always open for you, we will help to solve the problems that you announce".
Yet this provoked a negative response from the US official, André Goodfriend,
as he said that Hungary "to
understand the sensitivities on the ethnic nationalism question." This was
an oblique reference to Hungary’s interests in Transcarpathia, amongst other
regions.
A lot of
the Trans Carpathian Hungarians voted for Viktor Yanukovich in the 2010
Ukrainian elections, which doesn’t sit well with the likes of the
uber-Ukrainian nationalist groups ‘Svoboda’ or ‘Pravy Sektor’, who
unsurprisingly took over some public buildings in the region and proceeded to trash
them “Maidan square style”. The serious threat
of Ukrainian nationalism is of extreme concern to the Hungarian minority and consequently
they are fearful for their future.
NGOs raided
At the
beginning of September, the Hungarian authorities made moves against a number
of foreign-back “civil society” NGOs based in Hungary, over alleged financial
mismanagement. This triggered a wave of criticism including the Hungarian Civil
Liberties Union (HCLU) who released a press statement with the following
heading: “The EU Cannot Remain Silent About the Putinization of Hungary Any
Longer”. Nb9
Two NGOs were specifically targeted, Ökotárs and Demnet, both
connected to Norway NGO Grant, thereby provoking a diplomatic spate with the
Norwegian government. Interestingly, Okotars is also the civil society
implementing partner in Hungary of the U.S. Agency for International
Development, (USAID). A week later, Hungary got a special mention in a speech
made by President Obama back in September, where he said: “From Hungary to
Egypt, endless regulations and overt intimidation increasingly target civil
society.” The only EU and NATO country to be mentioned, along with the likes of
Russia, China, Venezuela, Cuba and Burma.
The last word from the US
“If that trend continues it may reach a level
where the United States can no longer cooperate with Hungary as an ally.” Statement
made by André Goodfriend.
The
precedent has been recently set in Ukraine, where a democratically elected
leader was violently overthrown, simply because he did not fit into the “international
community’s democratic values”, by not respecting the wishes of the Maidan “civil
society” groups and NGOs in February 2014. Indeed, the Euro-Atlantic bloc,
along with the rest of the so called “international community” were so desperate
to bring in Ukraine into their sphere of
influence, that they allied themselves with zealot anti-Russian ultra-nationalists
and fascists Ukrainian groups.
Internet Tax Protests
Not long
ago, the Hungarian government proposed a new law on taxing the use of the
internet, which has resulted in massive protests in Budapest on Sunday. The protest
rally organizers of '100,000 against the Internet tax' have called the proposed
law “anti-democratic” and also described
the proposals as the move “… follows a
wave of alarming anti-democratic measures by Orban that is pushing Hungary even
further adrift from Europe.”
Moreover,
protestors have attacked the offices of Orban’s Fidesz ruling party. All of the
Western press has heaped criticism on Orban and his government. Is this the start of a new Maidan in Budapest?
It has come to my attention that one of the participants in Sunday's event is none other than Andre Goodfriend; was he merely an observer or was there more to his attendance. It seems that on face value, the US administration's signal is crystal clear. Another noteworthy attendee was the ex Budapest mayor, Budapest Gabor Demszky from the SZDSZ party. András Bencsik,
chief editor of the newspaper Demokrata, reacted to the event by comparing the rally to Ukraine: “football hooligans and liberals, just like in the case of the Kiyv Maidan”.Nb10
Another Twitter message of support came from none other than the EU Vice-President of the European Commission Neelie Kroes:
The first shots of an US - Hungarian diplomatic fallout have already rung out in October. Could the internet tax protest be the catalyst for what ultimately could be a US sponsored regime change, right in the heart of the EU and NATO hegemony?
References and Notes:
- Nb1a http://www.kormany.hu/en/the-prime-minister/the-prime-minister-s-speeches/prime-minister-viktor-orban-s-speech-at-the-25th-balvanyos-summer-free-university-and-student-camp
“ "This,
Ladies and Gentlemen, is the explanation for the fact that the most popular
topic in thinking today is trying to understand how systems that are not
Western, not liberal, not liberal democracies and perhaps not even democracies,
can nevertheless make their nations successful. The stars of the international
analysts today are Singapore, China, India, Russia and Turkey.”
1b -
http://hungary.usembassy.gov/pr_10182014.html
Nb 4 http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2014/oct/232444.htm
Nb 6 - Interestingly, Hungarian officials cited that
additional gas supplies were being stored in preparation for winter
consumption, as well as for neighboring states to buy. Several days after this
was announced, Dusan Bajatovic, the chief executive of Serbia's Srbijagas
stated that it was looking to secure supplies from Hungary. Moreover, at that
time, gas flow to Serbia was down by 20 percent. Interesting turn of events.
Nb 7a -
7b “He
wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine. ... This was one
of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he
visited Moscow,” Sikorski was quoted as saying in a 19 October interview with
Politico magazine.
Nb8-
Nb 9a
9b
